Formula One / David Croft / 12 September 2009 /

David Croft is soaking up the sun and controversy in Monza as he selects the best bets for Sunday's Italian Grand Prix...

And so we come to the end of the European leg of this fascinating Formula 1 season. And before we head off around the world once more we have a weekend in this most glorious of settings to savour. Monza in the sunshine is quite simply stunning. Last year it resembled Glastonbury in the mud but 12 months on the sky is blue and the Tifosi are bare chested.

Just a few minutes into this mornings practice session told you all you needed to know about the passion the fans have for their Formula 1 in this part of the world. Giancarlo Fisichella, the latest Italian to drive for Ferrari was strolling around the 3.6 mile circuit, taking his time to get used to his new machine. As he passed the stands the loyal faithful rose to wish him well, cheering and sounding a plethora of air horns to great their hero. A nice touch. Fisichella didn't let them down either. He wasn't on the pace in the first 90 minutes but he improved steadily and ended up a tenth quicker than Kimi Raikkonen, although he did benefit from running the softer tyres ahead of his team mate.

Fisichella at [1.94] is a decent bet to go one better than Felipe Massa's last replacement and actually score some points here. At [3.5] he will attract support for a podium, although that may be a step too far for him despite Ferrari having a competitive car for the weekend. His team-mate though could be a different story.

Kimi Raikkonen has finished on the podium in the last three races, winning of course at Spa last time out. Keen to point out to his team jut how invaluable his services are, less they decide to replace him with a Spanish double world champion next season, Raikkonen is starting to give glimpses of the form that brought him his own title two years ago.

The advantage of KERS that helped him to victory in Belgium, will give him an edge again, the extra 80bhp for 6.6 seconds a lap keeps those behind at bay and sets up the opportunity to overtake down the long straights. He's priced at [7.0] for the race, which does seem a touch on the high side to me. Don't expect him to be on pole, the 15 metre advantage from KERS off the line will give Ferrari the chance to fill him with a few more laps of fuel before the first pit stop, ensuring that his strategy won't be compromised by the need to qualify as high up the grid as possible.

Raikkonen will face some stiff competition from Lewis Hamilton though. McLaren weren't expecting to be as competitive here as they appeared in yesterdays practice. The car rides the kerbs well, allowing both drivers to attack the chicanes, the secret to a fast lap at Monza. Estimates suggested that they were gaining at least a couple of tenth's a second by being able to drive aggressively over the 15cm high kerbs in the first and second chicanes and don't forget, McLaren have KERS too. At [2.4] though Hamilton isn't the value bet and don't forget that at Spa their weekend started well before they dropped off the pace during Saturday.

One team on the pace again though and looking a very strong possibility for at least a decent points scoring finish, are Force India. Adrian Sutil was the fastest man in second practice and whilst there might not be more pace to come, ruling him out for pole later today, they are bullish about their chances. At [1.7] to come home in the top 8 there isn't much value in backing Sutil, but all things being equal he should deliver a first points scoring finish since Japan 2007.

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