Formula One / Scott Ferguson / 11 July 2009 /

The threat of rain at a circuit which has seen less than 60% of drivers finish in its last two Grands Prix makes the German GP a tantaslising race. Cold weather, which was blamed for the poor performance of the Brawn team, and a first-time pole-sitter in Mark Webber adds another couple of twists to the form lines, writes Scott Ferguson.

Qualifying was dominated by the uncertainty of rain.

Round One went relatively smoothly although Robert Kubica and Timo Glock will be very disappointed with not making it out of the first session.

Rain hit Round Two after just a minute and turned it into complete chaos. Rubens Barrichello, Adrian Sutil and Nelsinho Piquet found a brief dry window and a safe running line to finish more than a second faster than the rest of the field, with Alonso and Trulli being the high-profile casualties.

Round Three came down to the usual suspects driving Brawn and Red Bull cars filling the front rows, but the McLarens surprised by claiming fifth and sixth, ahead of the big surprise package, Sutil in the Force India. Ferraris fill eighth and ninth places with Piquet junior, qualifying ahead of his teammate for the first time, rounding out the top 10.

Mark Webber has been knocking on the door for his first race win with three seconds and a third this year, all from the second or third row on the grid. Wouldn't it be ironic if rain in Germany helped this Australian win and the lack of forecast rain in Cardiff helped the Aussie cricketers?

Rubens Barrichello sits outside the front row, yet as is often the case, is the outsider of the top four in the betting. We expect Button to be the lead driver, but if Barrichello manages to put a Red Bull car between him and Button, he has to be a chance. Button and Vettel are poised right behind the front row, making the long run to the first turn, often a sign of carnage at this track, a treacherous one.

This circuit is a very tough on cars, the last two races here had 22-car grids and only 13 finished each time. Backing the under 15.5 finishers at [2.3] and above looks worthwhile. With rain forecast and the potential for accidents, the winning margin market looks tricky, with each of the last three races decided by a different bracket in the Betfair market.

The pole-sitter has only won once here in the past four races, a stat which is a bit of anomaly in F1, but rain is a regular factor here. I do like Webber to bring up his first race win, and at [2.9] with a clear road in front of him, that's probably a little bit of value. Ignore the fact he has yet to win a race, his main rivals had only won once apiece before this season, they all have to start somewhere.

Back Webber to win at [2.8] or better
Back under 15.5 finishers at [2.3] or better

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