French Grand Prix Betting: Ferrari roar likely to pierce the peace of Magny-Cours once again

Formula One / David Croft / 20 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

BBC commentator David Croft foresees a sixth victory from eight for the Italian F1 giants

Vache, une vache, les vaches, Vache everywhere. We're in Magny-Cours and it's wall-to-wall vache as far as the eye can see. For those not familiar with French, Vache means cow and in this part of the French countryside there are millions of them.

It's a bit surreal really, we travel from the heart of Montreal to the most rural of races, a complete culture shock for us townies, but it does make a pleasant change.

It's fair to say this is not one of the most popular grand Prix of the season, those party animals in the paddock find it all a bit dull but if the stories are true they may not have to put up with the fresh air and peace and quiet for much longer.

Once again the race is billed as a farewell to Magny-Cours, much as it was last year until someone pointed out that the organisers had a contract for 2008 so as much as Bernie Ecclestone wasn't keen on the place we had to come back anyway. So this year could be the last and the French GP is once again fighting for it's place on the calendar which is a shame as whatever you think about the venue - and it has to be said that this track hasn't featured great racing in recent history - France is the home of Grand Prix racing, and history and heritage should count for something. Let's not lose the race and let's stay here whilst a concerted effort is made to find a new venue that satisfies the modern day F1 demands.

Talking of demands though, what a demanding weekend it will be for Lewis Hamilton. That ten-place grid penalty he picked up for failing to stop at a red light in Canada has effectively scuppered his chances of a win here in France. A win that was always going to be tough given Ferrari's recent domination on this track - five wins in the last seven years - but now looks almost impossible. That doesn't mean though that he won't be able to score so [1.41] with Betfair for a points finish looks a sure-fire winner.

Interestingly this morning, Mark Hughes my co-commentator for the first practice session, noticed that Mclaren had changed the design of the wheel covers to make it easier and quicker to remove the tyres during a pit stop. Did this mean Mclaren were looking at a three-stop strategy in order to run Lewis light during qualifying and go for the fastest time in Q3? It would make sense as, with the old design, there was a danger that the re-fuelling would be finished whilst the tyres were still being changed, an outcome that could wreck the strategy. A three stopper and Lewis Hamilton's ability to break late and extract an overtaking opportunity where it doesn't seem possible could put him in line for a podium. At a price of [3.2] to finish in the top three I might be tempted.

But the odds are that it will be a Ferrari win. Felipe Massa was seven-tenths of a second quicker than his nearest rival this morning. He's driving better than ever at the moment and I'd favour him over the under pressure Kimi Raikkonen for this, Betfair's win market offers a best price [2.9] on the Brazilian and [2.38] to lay the current world champion. Robert Kubica will be desperate to hold onto his lead in the Drivers' Championship but I get the feeling that a podium will be his best bet, you can back him at [2.04] for the top three.

And finally just a mention of the market for the final session of qualifying. Sebastian Vettel finished eighth fastest in first practice and with 20 minutes to go in the afternoon was fourth quickest. The young German driver seems destined for a promotion to the senior Red Bull team next year is impressing plenty in the paddock and now the new Torro Rosso car has had some time to bed in, he looks to be producing the goods.

In front of his home fans there will be plenty of eyes on Vettel's French teammate Sebastian Bourdais but I think Vettel will have the edge and at [3.5] is a risk worth taking to reach Q3.