Formula One: Watch the skies, advises David Croft

Formula One / David Croft / 21 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

After the news emerged that Auntie Beeb has won back the rights to broadcast the sport, the Formula One players get back to business. The Malaysian Grand Prix will be hotly contested, but David Croft believes that could be tempered by rain.

Well it makes a change for the BBC to be the subject of paddock chat rather than involved in it, but that's the situation here in Malaysia this week. For those that haven't heard, the beeb have secured a deal this week to cover Formula 1 for five years from 2009 which should be great news for fans of the sport back in the UK. The deal was announced very suddenly on Thursday morning and includes TV and Radio, plus live streaming on the Internet and mobile phones. Good news indeed for the fans who will have access to lots of action across the weekend.

It seems there's never a dull moment in this sport and that was proved at the opening race of the season, a cracking Grand Prix in Melbourne which showed that the new regulations and the removal of the drivers aids are going to make life tough for those on the track. And life could get even tougher this weekend, not just because the Malaysian Grand Prix is physically the toughest test for the drivers - high humidity and scorching temperatures make it very uncomfortable indeed - but because the threat of rain during qualifying and the race is very real.

Changeable weather means that for punters there is value to be had should the heavens open. Traditionally it can lead to a shock or two, ask Jenson Button whose one win in F1 was in the rain in Hungary starting from 14th on the grid. Jenson is [20.0] with Betfair to finish on the podium this weekend, a price that will shorten if the rain comes down. His handling of the Honda in the wet is masterful, all he needs is to stay out of trouble, something he could manage in Fuji last year when on course for a decent result. The sight of him completing three laps without a front wing on his car fully underlined his talent in the rain. Apparently, he didn't even notice it had gone!

A better bet for Betfair customers may be for Fernando Alonso who showed in Melbourne that he's prepare to slug it out even if his car isn't as quick as he'd like. His record of 2 wins and 3 podiums in his last 5 GP's here indicates that he likes the track and the [7.2] for him to appear on the podium in 2008 does appeal. I don't expect him to trouble the top 4 in qualifying however and on the evidence of the first two practice session Ferrari appear to have an edge, albeit a frail one, over Mclaren's Lewis Hamilton

The Ferrari team say they are confident that they have solved their engine problems from Australia but the sight of Kimi Raikkonen pulling over to one side in the morning session would have sent those alarm bells ringing again. The explanation that the problem was caused by a misunderstanding between the telemetry and the pit wall is a vague one but if you back the team's faith then the [6.2] for Felipe Massa to win qualifying is worth taking. He's usually filled slightly lighter with fuel in qualifying than Raikkonen and don't forget he was on pole last year.

Massa is priced at [7.0] to win Sundays race, but if it rains I'm sure he won't: his team-mate is a far better bet under those conditions than the Brazilian. Kimi is available at [2.98] for the race with Lewis Hamilton at [2.64]. For the last 19 races Ferrari and Mclaren have shared the victories, expect that run to continue here in Sepang whether it rains or not, but be prepared for an upset and watch the weather reports.