Formula One / David Croft / 06 August 2009 /

David Croft talks us through recent events in Formula One including: Felipe Massa's crash, Lewis Hamilton's new lease of life, the return of Michael Schumacher and Brawn GP's loss of form. And more importantly: how they've all affected the betting on Betfair.

So far this summer Tom Watson has rolled back the years and rolled in the putts at The Open. Meanwhile Lance Armstrong pulled on the lycra and pedaled his way onto the podium at the Tour De France. It's turning into a golden time for sports golden oldies.

No surprise then that the return of Michael Schumacher to Formula 1 has been met with both a fervor and a fever as the petrolheads wait in high anticipation for the European Grand Prix in a fortnight's time.

The big question on everyones lips is whether the seven-time world champion can come back and show his best. Bernie Ecclestone believes he can and told me this week that he expected Michael to hand out a lesson to his rivals. If that's the case then maybe he should check out Betfair's Drivers Specials markets where Schumacher is currently trading at [2.76] for 0.5 race wins and over. Just one victory needed then and looking at the tracks coming up, several will suit both car and driver. Of course he might not be racing in all 7 of the Grand Prix between now and the rest of the season, but with Felipe Massa not in a title challenging position, why would Ferrari race him back into action? Far better to let him continue his excellent recovery back in Brazil and give him the rest and recuperation he needs.

Seven races to go then and unlike the situation after the first seven races of the season, the title battle is suddenly starting to look a little less like a foregone conclusion. What has happened to Brawn GP? Why are they suddenly struggling? Why are Red Bull so much faster? And can McLaren and Ferrari be up there for the rest of the year?

Questions that will be answered in the fullness of time but for those with a little less patience, I'll have a go for you now.

Firstly Brawn have been hindered by three relatively cold races in Britain, Germany and Hungary, the latter of which was still around 6 degrees cooler on the track than they needed to work their tires effectively. Saying that though, they can't hide behind the tyre temperature problem forever and I just wonder if the real problem is the lack of development budget they have at Brackley. After all, everything we saw up to and including the Spanish Grand Prix had been designed and paid for before Honda pulled out of the sport.

Since then the team have been on their own and lately have been outpaced by a Red Bull team who have spent somewhere in the region of £10 million (according to my sources) on the various upgrades. Money well spent as far as the team are concerned as it's propelled them to the front and pushed Mark Webber very much into the title hunt, alongside his team mate and Jenson Button. However it does raise the issue of whether the cost-cutting initiatives have gone far enough this season, but let's save that chat for another day.

They've replaced Brawn as favourites now for the constructors championship and I'm not surprised. Their price of [1.41] is as much a reflection of the strength of their driver line up as it the car Webber and Vettel drive. They have a two pronged challenge at their disposal whilst Barrichello seems unable to raise his game to the level needed for a win at the moment.

But when it comes to the Drivers' Championship the strength of the Red Bull pairing might be to the either driver's detriment. I fully expect both Webber and Vettel to take points off each other between now and the final race of the year. If they do, that can only help Jenson Button, who with an 18.5 point lead and a team-mate that can't beat him rightly remains the favourite at [2.3]. Webber and Vettel are both trading at [3.75]; forget the rest, the race is between these three.

I do however expect both Ferrari and McLaren to win a race between now and the end of the year. Tracks like Valencia, Spa and Singapore might just suit the cars still running KERS, which McLaren used to great effect in Hungary. The return of Schumacher might stimulate Raikkonen out of his slumbers, although his second place in Budapest last time out was richly deserved and a great boost for the team in a troubled weekend. Hamilton is back to his highly motivated best too. There was a definite spring in his step in Hungary, proof if ever was needed, as to how much difference a competitive car makes.

All of which is great news for Jenson Button who still needs to win a couple of races to make sure of the title. But if his team can't help him do that, he needs his rivals to join in the fight and help him preserve that lead. Providing of course that he can stay in the hunt too, the resurgence of Ferrari and McLaren might just be the salvation he needs after a concerning last three races for him and his followers.

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