Formula One Betting Preview: Simple need for points makes Massa a value call

Formula One / David Croft / 10 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

David Croft has been watching the early sessions at Fuji as Formula One gets ready for Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix. Read his thoughts on the race here...

There are those of us who came to Fuji for last year's Grand Prix that doubted the famous mountain even exists. Four days of rain and cloud covered Japan's highest peak to such an extent that it never showed itself for the entire weekend. The nearest we got to a peak was on Friday morning but the break in the weather didn't last long.

So I'm pleased to report that this year it's a different story. The mountain is there in all her glory - prompting some in the paddock to contemplate a Sunday morning climb up the 12,500 feet - and the sun so far has been shining down.

That has also allowed the Formula 1 teams their first proper serious running on the track in the dry. Lap times even in the first practice session have been around seven seconds a lap quicker than those we witnessed in 2007 which, for Ferrari, is a very good thing indeed. As I've written before they, more so than McLaren, welcome warm temperatures and sunshine for the rest of the season, allowing their car to get more from its Bridgestone tyres. When it rains or gets colder the performance of their car drops accordingly.

Friday's practice sessions saw Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of Felipe Massa but the fact that the pair were separated by just over a tenth of second does tend to suggest that there isn't much to choose between the two. What we have seen over the course of the season is that once the track rubbers in - allowing more grip - the Ferrari's performance takes a significant leap forward. So in terms of picking out a winner for qualifying and the race one could side with Felipe Massa on the evidence of what we've seen today and in recent races.

But - and it's a big but - should it get colder or start to rain McLaren should have the upper hand. And that's where it becomes slightly tricky for Betfair punters.

I'd like to tell you exactly what the weather is going to do over the weekend but a definitive opinion just isn't there. Half of the teams believe it will rain for qualifying and stay dry for the race, half think it's the other way around. In short nobody is quite sure and the fact that the circuit is halfway up a mountain just adds to the confusion.

What I would say is that after his win in Singapore Fernando Alonso has the bit between his teeth and, seemingly, a car underneath him that he can get a good result from. At [16.5] with Betfair he's an outstanding outside bet to win the race and at [2.82] an even more attractive proposition for a podium finish, especially if we do get rain to level up the performance differential between Renault and Ferrari/McLaren. He may not need his team-mate to crash to help him this weekend as it did last time out, besides if it stays dry I can't see the safety car coming out, Betfair's market offers [1.8] that it won't.

Back to the race and as they're not challenging for the title don't expect either Heikki Kovalainen or Kimi Raikkonen to be allowed by their teams to go for the win, not if either Felipe Massa or Lewis Hamilton are still running. With Betfair you can lay Raikkonen at [7.2] or Kovalainen at [21.0] and that might seem the sensible option there, though the downside should either win makes it risky - especially if McLaren's second driver comes through.

As for the two title challengers, Hamilton at [2.68] will only be attractive should the conditions go his way, otherwise he may struggle to keep pace with Massa and besides he and his team have declared their intent to exercise caution in the remaining races, so as long as he's running only a place behind the Brazilian, he might be content to sit and wait and hold his position, not good for Betfair backers but he's thinking more of the title at this stage, not just race wins. Massa on the other hand has to win first and worry about where his rival finishes later, should it stay dry and that must be taken into consideration I think he's excellent value to win at [3.0].