Formula One Betting: Kovalainen or Kubica could be on pole but it should be Ferrari's day

Formula One / David Croft / 25 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

The BBC's David Croft gives us the lowdown on the Spanish Grand Prix from Barcelona and tells us why Robert Kubica could be more than just a dark horse for pole position

So after four days of testing last week, Formula 1 is back in Barcelona for the latest round of the world championship. Four days that produced a muddle for those trying to work out which teams had found the best way to boost their chances. With some runs taking place on slick tyres with '08 levels of down force and some on '08 tyres and '09 down force confusion rained as to just who had the upper hand.

Which meant that the arrival of the first session of Friday practice was eagerly anticipated here at the Circuit de Catalunya, now a pattern might just emerge after three long haul races and an inconclusive test as to who was on the money, and who your money should be with.

Sadly the lights went green, the cars came out for one lap and then retreated to the shade of the garage for the next half an hour, a slight frustration for us commentators and I'd imagine, slightly more for the fans who had paid good money to come and see some action. That's the problem you get though when, as in the case of Mclaren say, teams run something in the region of 66,000km of testing at this track in preparation for the season. It hardly encourages them to come out and put on a show for the spectators come race weekend.

Still, the next hour made up for the lack of activity at the start and by the end of the session the two Ferraris were in the region of half a second faster than Lewis Hamilton's Mclaren with Robert Kubica of BMW 4th and Heiki Kovalainen in the other Mclaren 5th. Who was happiest as a result? Probably BMW who I think fancy their chances on the evidence of Friday morning of grabbing another front row spot, and here's why.

The Ferraris may have finished fastest, however it wasn't until their second or even third timed run that the quick times started to appear. Which could point to the fact that their cars were struggling to get the heat into their tyres, more heat equals more grip and better times. Mclaren however were setting their quick times on their first timed run so will be confident going into qualifying, but the times are only relevant when the respective fuel loads are taken into consideration and it's thought that BMW were running similar loads. That means that with Betfair offering [9.2] on Robert Kubica and Nick Heidfeld [20] it could be wise to stick with the German team once again come Saturday afternoon

Just looking at the evidence from Friday's practice however, when Sunday and the race comes, Ferrari may have the upper hand. They might struggle to get heat into the tyres straight away, but once they do, their advantage looks significant. The question is whether they will be penalised too much by a poor qualifying. It's a fascinating conundrum that with Raikkonen at [2.6] and Massa at [3.3] you may find both drivers too short a price to take a risk with.

As for the other markets, I have a hunch that Williams could be strong here, as hunch based on their winter testing as much as their performance in Australia. Since that race they've been below par, but I believe this is the track they understand and go well on. The home support would love to see Fernando Alonso head up the chasing pack, but they might be better employed to side with Nico Rosberg instead, who I like at [1.91] to finish in the points.