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Formula One Betting: Ferrari should land Turkish Grand Prix but may not sneak the pole

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David Croft, our man in Istanbul, is hoping for a BMW or Renault to split the big boys on Sunday

For all those of you back in the UK who think that I spend my year topping up my tan and basking in glorious sunshine as I follow Formula 1 around the world, it's cold here in Istanbul. Quite frankly I could stand inside a fridge and feel warmer than I do at the moment, my fingers after a walk from the commentary box have still not completely thawed out and the shivers have barely subsided. It is much, much warmer back home and to make matters worse I packed nothing but shorts and t-shirts. Yes, I could have checked the weather forecast but I didn't and am paying the price big time.

Not that I want your sympathy though, I only mention the weather because for punters the cold overcast conditions could provide the key to an upset this weekend which you may want to consider.

First practice this morning saw Felipe Massa finish as the quickest man out on the track. However, those fast times only came Ferrari's way after he'd been out on the track for several laps. I can't comment on Kimi Raikkonen as he only completed three laps whilst the mechanics changed his gear box. What was significant about Massa's performance though was that in the early stages his times were being eclipsed by Heikki Kovalainen in the Mclaren. That tends to suggest that the Mclaren was getting more heat into its tyres faster than the Ferrari, more heat equals more grip, more grip equals faster times. Should this trend continue, we can expect the Ferrari to have significantly more pace, during the race, however when it comes to qualifying they won't have the luxury of three or four laps to get up to speed, that's when the ability to generate heat in the tyres quickly will be rewarded so logically should we as punters be looking at a Mclaren pole on Saturday.

The Betfair market has Lewis Hamilton priced at [7.9] and Heikki Kovalainen priced at [13.0] so watch the skies with interest and keep checking the weather forecasts.

What is good about the circuit here in Istanbul is that it is possible to overtake, the end of the back straight where cars brake at 190 mph with less than 70 metres to the corner provides the best spot, so despite the fact that the man on pole has gone on to win all three Grand Prixs held at the track it doesn't necessarily mean that the run will continue this year.

Looking at the Ferrari's pace this morning I'd still back them to take a victory even if they do start behind the Mclaren. But what could really mix it up would be a BMW or a Renault getting in the way of the Ferraris and the Mclarens ahead of them. It's possible, given the results of qualifying this year, especially if Ferrari's strategy is to run a long first stint before their initial pit stop, thus carrying more fuel into the final part of qualifying. For that reason I'd hang off backing Ferrari - if that's who you think will win - for the victory until after qualifying on Saturday when you can see what they're up against.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the weather stays as it is, giving us the best prospect of a cracking Turkish Grand Prix to wipe away the memory of the procession in Barcelona, even if it does mean a few more days spent shivering under grey skies.