Formula One / David Croft / 20 January 2008 /

FiveLive's Formula One commentator David Croft runs through the coming season...

The countdown clock is ticking away and when I looked at it this morning it showed less than two months to go. Every New Years Day I set a clock for the first Grand Prix of the season in an effort to remind myself that there really isn't much time till the Formula 1 circus swings into action and that I'd better start getting ready now.

There are new rules to contend with, new drivers and in 2008 two new circuits as well. Valencia hosts a street race around the re-developed harbour whilst Singapore stages the first night race in Formula 1 history. The drivers will have to contend without traction control, making wet races trickier and encouraging more overtaking (it's hoped anyway).

The teams will now have to make each gearbox last for four races - engines will still have to last for two Grand Prix - and qualifying has been tweaked so that the first session is five minutes longer and Q3 shorter.

The needless fuel burning phase of final qualifying has been eliminated as well so cars now start the race with the same amount of fuel that they end qualifying with, a step in the right direction for all concerned that one.

So with Betfair's market for the 2008 Formula 1 Championship already open the question the punters want answered is a simple one: 'Who's Going To Win?'

The market suggests a two horse race between Kimi Raikkonen and Lewis Hamilton. A decent assumption but not a dead cert. Obviously both start the season as the Number 1 man at his team but in the case of Ferrari both drivers had equal status last year and although the Finn brought home the title, Massa won't be playing second fiddle. The Schumacher days when Ferrari revolved around one man are now consigned to the exhaust fumes of history. Raikkonen is priced at [2.72] with Massa [7.8] in the Drivers Champion market and should Kimi get off to a bad start, those who took a risk on Massa might just be sitting in pole position, if you pardon the pun.

Meanwhile at McLaren Lewis Hamilton is priced at [3.55] with his new teammate Heikki Kovalainen out at [15]. A fair reflection I think of the chances of both men. Not that Kovalainen isn't fast, he is, but given the problems McLaren had trying to ensure equality in 2007 this year the team might just be more inclined to change their method of thinking.

In early testing the McLaren car has been quick with Lewis Hamilton pushing it to the limit, hence a couple of offs in the gravel at Jerez this week. Nothing wrong with the that and with traction control no longer there to help the drivers you can expect more to slide off before the season starts as well. In the back of my mind I do wonder what last year will have taken out of the team and how they'll cope with being at the wrong end of the pit lane in 2008 where it's cramped and where space is at a premium.

It may just affect their day-to-day working at the track, which could have a knock-on effect though I hope not as I'm looking forward to a repeat of last years duel with Ferrari. I believe that despite Renault and BMW's obvious improvements, despite Toyota's encouraging times at Jerez and despite the appointment of Ross Brawn at Honda - an appointment that will bring dividends in '09 trust me - this year it's Ferrari or McLaren again. Alonso might look attractive at [9.2] but I wouldn't take it and with Nick Heidfeld at [42.0] the next best price after Kovalainen it does rather show that the market agrees.

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