Formula One Betting: Cold weather at Spa is good news for "The Iceman" Raikkonen

Formula One / David Croft / 05 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

The BBC's David Croft tells us why those keeping faith with Raikkonnen may just find that this week at Spa, their patience will be rewarded.

With the sun trying it's best to peak through the clouds and the chill factor growing higher by the minute, it was a tighter scrum than usual here in Spa on Thursday afternoon. The broadcasters were happy to huddle up in a bid to keep the cold out but also desperate to aim a microphone in the direction of the man on the other side of the ropes, Kimi Raikkonen.

It's fair to say that the current world champion attracted more pre race interest than usual here, not just because he arrives in Belgium looking to win this Grand Prix for the 4th year in succession - in 2007 he was simply awesome from start to finish - but because despite still being in the hunt for the title in 2008 he hasn't won now since Spain and that was 9 races ago.

He would have won in France had parts of his exhaust not fallen off, he may well have won at Silverstone had Ferrari not been unlucky enough to make the wrong call on tyres at the wrong time and who knows what might have happened to Kimi had Lewis Hamilton not run into the back of him in the pit lane in Montreal. In short, Raikkonen has had some bad luck, although the situation hasn't been helped by the Finn's apparent lack of fight during some races, an acceptance that he wouldn't be winning, so why waste energy trying. Looking at his body language and listening to his answers as I fired some questions at him in the scrum, it was clear that Kimi was still in the mood for a fight though, if only he could find a way to enable his Ferrari to qualify higher up the grid.

The problem for the Finn has been his tyres and their inability to warm up to the required temperature before the start of a flying lap so that he can challenge for pole. Raikkonen's team mate Felipe Massa often has less fuel on board which helps his cause and can be seen as one of the reasons why he's been on pole 4 times this season to Raikkonens two.

Looking at the weather forecast this weekend, Ferrari won't get any help on the temperature front there. It's going to be much colder than we normally see. The scorching sunshine of Valencia played into Massa's hands, Kimi made mistakes in qualifying otherwise he might have been up there too but here in Spa there'll be no benefit from the weather.

What will help is the fact that at 4.3 miles long there's more than enough time to heat up the tyres during the outlap so that once he crosses the line, Raikkonen won't be compromised by his machinery. That was clear from the outset of first practice as lap after lap the Finn banged in quick lap after quick lap. He finished three tenths of a second adrift of Massa but it was an encouraging start and Kimi looked very much in the zone.

So for those - like myself - who have kept faith with Kimi maybe this is the weekend that we can have our faith repaid. Betfair's win market has him at [3.55] whilst the overall qualifying market has him at [3.55], decent value and made even more so should the rain come down. Saying that, the sight of his Ferrari running without a rear wing after Kimi spun on Friday afternoon wasn't exactly reassuring. Better though to have the accident in Friday practice than during qualifying or the race itself. In Raikkonen's defence, the track at the time was damp and a little greasy and on dry tyres even the best can put their car into the barrier.

Ferrari also have the advantage here at Spa of an engine that despite its frailties has a clear horsepower advantage over the Mercedes-powered Mclaren. Down the long straights the Mclarens may struggle to keep up and looking at this morning's time the fact that Ferrari were clearly enjoying an advantage in the first sector - which includes the 200 mph run down from La Source through Eau Rouge and the straight to Les Combes - backs up that point.

As much as the patriotic pound would like to side with Lewis Hamilton at [3.8], unless it rains he may have to play second fiddle for another race at least.

Speaking to Mark Webber, the subject of the Ferrari engine cropped up again with the Australian honest enough to admit that at the moment the Ferrari powered Torro Rosso had more going for it than the Renault powered Red Bull. Here at Spa and at Monza next week, he believed that it would be impossible for Red Bull to beat their sister team and it might pay to back against the Australian in the points finish market. You can lay him on Betfair at [3.45] whilst Sebastian Vettel his team mate next year can be bought for a points finish at [1.86] also worth a punt.