Formula One Betting: Battles on the track, battles off the track

Formula One / David Croft / 26 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

With no Formula One this week, David Croft takes a moment to reflect on what's going on in the Championship and what's going on behind the scenes with Max Mosley at the centre of it all...

What a week this has been for Formula 1. From the breakout of civil war between the teams' association and the FIA, we've gone to the brink of self destruct only for a surprise deal to be struck on Wednesday that seemed to end the matter. And then just as peace was breaking out, Max Mosley has reminded the teams that he's still in charge, until October at least, and possibly, if you believe his letter to Luca di Montezemelo, for a little longer after that.

Yes whilst FOTA celebrated their victory, Max it seems was busy plotting the greatest comeback since Take That decided that they were still 'the daddy' when it came to boy-bands. It may not yet get to the stage where Max stands for re-election again. If you believe everything you hear, he's changed his mind about going 5 times in the last week. And it could be that a simple sorry from the Ferrari and FOTA President will do the job.

But it could also be the case that now Max has got the teams to sign on the dotted line and commit themselves to the sport for the next three years, he's got them where he wants them and believes it's time to re-introduce his style of governance, the style of course that brought us to this situation in the first place. If that is the case, expect that breakaway series to be announced pretty sharpish and battle to commence once again. One thing is clear, the teams don't want Max Mosley in charge of the FIA, maybe with a little less celebrations after getting their way on Wednesday, this latest twist could have been avoided.

Meanwhile there is a championship battle going on, or two to be precise. After the dominance of Brawn and Button we finally saw Red Bull take the situation by the horns, pardon the pun, and win in style at Silverstone. The team from MIlton Keynes introduced what was effectively a B-spec car last week. A 65-part upgrade which allowed it to dominate the weekend from start to finish. Beware that at tracks that suit the characteristics of their car, Red Bull may engage in a spot of sandbagging on Fridays, concealing the true potential until qualifying. Vettel in qualifying at Silverstone put in what we all thought at the time was a decent pole position lap, but when we found out later that he had 4 more laps of fuel on board than his team-mate, our praise rose fourfold.

The key to the upgrades is that they have helped accommodate a new double-deck diffuser package, improving lap times and also helping with rear tyre graining that had dogged the team in the early part of the season. They are without question the number one challenger to Brawn and have the tools at their disposal now to really take the fight to the team from Brackley.

The momentum after the last race is definitely with Red Bull, reflected in their best price of [3.3] with Betfair to win the constructors championship. To me though they're still a long shot, albeit one with a very good car at the moment. There's 30.5 points between Red Bull and Brawn at the moment and unless the championship leaders suffer a major calamity over the summer months their price of [1.41], although short at first look, doesn't seem one worth opposing when you take everything into consideration.

It's the same in the driver's championship with Jenson Button possibly in a stronger position given that his team mate Rubens Barrichello stands between himself and Sebastian Vettel. Button is currently trading at [1.39] with Vettel at [4.5] and Barrichello [30.0], a reflection of the Brazilian's inability to make the most of a dominant car in the first half of the season. He should have won at least one race by now even if his team mate is driving out of his skin, which Jenson is of course. Spain was the one that got away and could define Barrichello's season.

What strengthens Jenson's position though is not only his current 23 point lead but the fact that on paper at least the next two circuits should suit his car's strengths. Both the Nurburgring and Budapest are technical tracks with less high speed corners and where good traction is vital. If the sun shines in Germany you can expect Jenson to be back on top of the podium. Red Bull have finally got going but they excel on the high speed flowing tracks and for the time being they might have run out of road.