Formula One 2009: Coming soon to a track near you...

Formula One / David Croft / 18 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Formula 1 commentator David Croft has packed his microphone and has his passport at the ready, but before he slaps on the sunblock and jets off to Melbourne he tells us what we can expect from this year's Formula 1 season...

Coming soon to a track near you... and quite a few more a little further afield...

One team's struggle to survive against all the odds...
One man's determination to carry on when all were tipping him for retirement...
Another man's sacrifice to prove to the world how much he wanted to win...

"Unreachable" - Felipe Massa
"The surprise of 2009" - Rubens Barrichello
"There was no-one else" - Jenson Button
"We're not fast enough" - McLaren

Standby for thrills, spills and shocks as Formula 1 returns...

Is this the billing for a new Hollywood blockbuster? No, this is Formula 1 2009, not just any old season but one that on paper looks set to be the most open and competitive in recent years. A season where a number of drivers will fancy their chances and where the pre-season favourites have all had issues leading up to the first race. And a season where on the evidence, Brawn GP could spring the ultimate surprise.

The team that until three weeks ago faced an uncertain future is now being talked about as a title contender. Fantasy or reality? Well Betfair's customers certainly believe Brawn have a chance; the team is [10.0] to win the Constructors Championship whilst Jenson Button and Rubens Barichello are a best price of [11.0] and [24.0] respectively. Now given that Button was trading as high as [290.00] before his team's future was secured, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the value had now disappeared, but everything I'm told by those-in-the-know points to the Brawn GP01 being a car that can win races.

The question is, can it win enough races under the new rules to land a title? Brawn go into the season with a clear advantage from the recent tests. They have completed plenty of testing miles too which points to good reliability and the decision not to run KERS this season will allow them to distribute the car's weight the way they want it rather than be handicapped by compensating for the inclusion of a heavy battery.

With the team's funding secure for 2009 at least, Brawn GP will now be working hard to attract sponsors for the future. What is clear already is how hard they had been working on this season's car before Honda made their decision to pull out. A decision by the way that despite the slow down in the global car industry, is already looking like it's on a par with Decca turning down The Beatles. Ross Brawn appears to have overseen the design and build of a quick, reliable, contender and the decision to quit work early on the 2008 car has helped enormously.

Not something of course that Ferrari or McLaren could have afforded. Whilst others switched priority to 09, the two big teams were fighting it out for the 2008 titles and I wonder if that has handicapped them when it came to finding a solution to the new regulations. The engineering challenge of designing the new cars without a multitude of aerodynamic bits-and-bobs plus the headache of how to apply KERS - retrieving energy lost under breaking to give a power boost for around 6.5 seconds per lap equivalent to around 80bhp - was big enough without the constant development of the final few races of last season.

Consequently both teams have had their issues in recent weeks with reliability once again being Ferrari's achilles heel and the rear of the car affecting McLaren's progress. As a result McLaren's price for the Constructor's title has drifted to [5.4] and the team themselves have admitted they are not where they wanted to be in terms of development at this stage. Ferrari at [2.28] have held their price and that could be down to the strength of their driver line-up. Both Raikkonen [5.9] for the driver's title and Massa [6.4] will win races, as will Hamilton [5.8], but as for Heikki Kovalainen [50.0], Im not sure he's in the same league yet.

BMW say their KERS system is ready to race, as do Renault. I expect both to be using it in Melbourne, maybe McLaren as well but they could be the only three teams to employ the new system. So it will be fascinating to see how much advantage the power boost gives, in relation to the extra weight of the system.

BMW have placed much faith in this year's car and they could be in the shakeup in both championships. Robert Kubica is [9.8] and his team mate Nick Heidfeld [23.0]. Heidfeld is the consistent one who will bring home the points more often than not but Kubica has the flair for wins which under the new rules gives him the edge in the title race over his team-mate. And don't discount Fernando Alonso at [6.4], his ability to wring every last bit of pace from his car is legendary. Surely he too will be in the mix in an open season which promises multiple winners and big upsets along the way.