Formula 1 Betting: Three is the magic number as BMW disrupts McLaren/Ferrari duopoly

Formula One / David Croft / 13 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

It's been an great season so far with only one bad race. David Croft hails the birth of a three way Formula 1 fight.

A funny thing happened last Sunday. For the first time in 24 races neither a Ferrari or Mclaren car won a Formula 1 Grand Prix.

Ever since Fernando Alonso won the 2006 Japanese Grand Prix in his Renault the two most successful teams in the sport have had the wins sewn up between them. It was a run that had to end eventually and I hope those that read my column last week had a few beers to celebrate, assuming of course that you took my advice to back Kubica or BMW in Canada, if you didn't better luck next time, because there will be a next time, this is now a three way fight in Formula 1.

It's taken just 42 races for BMW Sauber to rise up the ranks and challenge the leading teams. 42 races in which they've set ambitious targets and ticked them off one by one, the question remains now is whether the ultimate achievement, a constructors or drivers title is within their grasp this season.

At the moment Betfair has BMW Sauber trading at a best price [12.0] for the Constructors Championship, they were 50 at one stage so slowly but surely backers are realising that the Swiss/German team are a decent punt. However I think the team title this year is a step too far. Their current position, just three points behind Ferrari, is a bonus and thanks in part to that crazy weekend in Montreal where Mclaren failed to score and Ferrari only picked up 4 points. However in the Drivers Championship Robert Kubica is still available at a tempting [9.8]. This is a man who has traded as high as 180 believe it or not and since the second race of the season has been picking up points consistently. In fact he's not finished lower than 4th since retiring from the opening race and fully deserves to lead the championship. He's asked BMW to back him 100%, something the team say they won't do to the exclusion of Nick Heidfeld but surely that decision is only a couple of races away. Should Kubica perform well in the next couple of races then the team will start to think differently, they'll have to.

Over at Ferrari Kimi Raikkonen has had a miserable couple of races. No points in Monaco or Montreal has left the defending champion 7 points off the pace in the drivers championship. However the French Grand Prix where we head next marked the start of his comeback in 2007 and going into that race he was 21 points off the pace. The Finn will feel that the next four races offer him the chance of redemption but at [2.34] is he worth siding with at present? His trouble is that Felipe Massa is starting to come good, learning from previous mistakes and driving with a great deal more maturity this year. His pass on Kovalainen and Barichello at the hairpin in Canada was just sublime and a year ago he wouldn't have had the confidence to go for it. 2008 is a different story though and that is bad news for Kimi. The two Ferrari drivers are not only scrapping against the rest but against each other, logically it follows that they'll trade wins which is not ideal in the drivers championship but for those supporting Ferrari at a very short [1.27] in the Constructors championship just what they want to see.

Finally to Mclaren and after meeting Lewis Hamilton earlier this week it was good to see that he wasn't dwelling on the mother of all mistakes in the Montreal pitlane, but was already working hard for the next races. He'd spent 6 hours training on Tuesday and on Wednesday morning was going through his paces in the teams' simulator. I hope for his sake he can rescue something from France - he starts with a ten place grid penalty, far too harsh 5 places would have been sufficient - A 4th or 3rd would keep him in the hunt. But then we go to Silverstone and the pressure will be intense from a sell out crowd all looking for him to take the win. Germany could favour the Ferraris whilst Hungary is up for grabs. It's going to be tough for him right up to the summer break and the accident in Canada hasn't helped, there was ten points he threw away. At [3.7] he's still a tempting price for the drivers title but he needs Mclaren to dictate that Heikki Kovalainen now drives as a number 2 and the prime strategy goes to Lewis. Kovalainen - sometimes through bad luck, sometimes through bad driving - hasn't scored enough of late and although Mclaren insist on treating both drivers equally that ethos won't necessarily help them from here on in. Seven rounds down, eleven to go, it's been a cracking season so far and only in Spain have we had a bad race.