Formula One / David Croft / 01 May 2009 /

David Croft shares his views on McLaren's punishment and assesses the fortunes of each team as F1 arrives in Europe...

I'd only been back home for half an hour this week when I got the call to go to Paris to cover McLaren's appearance in front of the World Motor Sport Council. Still, what difference is another couple of nights in another hotel going to make given the hectic nature of the opening four races of the season?

As you'll be aware, McLaren copped a suspended three race ban for their role in misleading the stewards, a fair punishment given the fact that the team had been disqualified from the Australian Grand Prix and had taken steps internally to avoid a repeat. It also led me to thinking that had they adopted the 'hands up we're sorry approach' over 'Spygate' they may well have avoided that $100 million fine. No point dwelling on the past thought - it's time now to look to the future as Formula 1 takes to the European circuits for the first time this season...

When the teams arrive in Barcelona next week it will feel as if the season is beginning again, it always does as the Motorhomes come out of their storage facilities for their first appearance in 2009 and new upgrades appear on each and every car on the grid. After their poor performances in the first few races, for some teams this is the start of the season but who has reasons to be cheerful so far?

Obviously, Brawn GP have stolen a march on their rivals and with it the headlines and 50 points from the first four Grand Prix. It seems incredible that a team whose future was secured only weeks before the first race are now trading at [2.06] for the Constructors Championship but their position at the top isn't a false one and the upgrade that comes in for Spain should give them at least an extra half a second of pace per lap. Jenson Button at [2.9] has taken his opportunities well and for the next race at least, he should still be the man to catch. From Monaco onwards the rest of the grid may get a little closer.

Red Bull at [4.2] won't be introducing their double decker diffuser system until the Monaco Grand Prix. Adrian Newey has been working hard to accommodate the system, which is far from simple given the pull rod suspension featured on the rear of the car. Before Bahrain many thought that Red Bull had drawn level with Brawn GP in the pecking order, but the evidence of the race proved different. The team have a good car and in Sebastien Vettel [3.9] and Mark Webber [28.0] they have good drivers too, but I fear they may just fall short this season and a lack of championship winning experience won't help their cause.

Toyota need a win. They've needed a win since the start of the season to keep their paymasters happy in Japan and now they've put two cars on the front row they'll be under pressure to provide that win. But has their best chance come and gone? Possibly, given the way they turned their 1-2 in qualifying into a poor race finish. Even without the wrong tyre call on their second stint they weren't going to win last week. At [14.0] for the Constructors Championship they'll stay in the hunt for a while yet, but the longer that maiden win eludes them, the more pressure the team will be under.

Even with a bad car and disqualification in Australia, McLaren have still managed to pick up 13 points. They got a break in Paris this week and with the resources at their disposal, they might just be able to turn their season around. Already their policy of introducing small upgrades race by race appears to be paying off. Lewis Hamilton, [7.8] for the drivers title, is driving the wheels off his car and sometime in the next four races he may well be back on top of the podium again. Experience and talent throughout the ranks makes them a valid third favourite for the Constructors Championship at [11.0], a price that has already shortened and will do so again if they bounce back to form in Spain.

Renault, [55.0] in the Constructors market, have two main problems. Firstly their new diffuser will bring them an extra 3/10th's of a second, now they have to find the other 6/10th's to close the gap on Brawn GP. Then they have to find a way for Nelson Piquet to compete against his team-mate. Until he starts to beat Fernando Alonso in qualifying or the race, they don't stand a chance of winning a Constructors title. One car won't do it for you. Piquet has to pull his socks up and the team have to help, because at the moment he's going nowhere fast, if you'll pardon the expression.

I feel a certain amount of sympathy for Force India this season, who should have scored points in China before Sutil crashed out, and who have improved significantly from the opening race. It won't be long before they make it out of qualifying one and the chance of points will come round again. With the upgrades they introduced in Bahrain the team appear to have leapfrogged Torro Rosso.

Williams , meanwhile, continue to flatter to deceive with some terrific times in practice from Nico Rosberg but then poor results in the race and qualifying. Once again their second driver isn't on the pace but unlike at Renault where Alonso continues to produce the goods, Rosberg isn't doing that for Williams and he needs to up his game.

Which brings us onto the two big disappointments of 2009 so far. BMW, the team that decided to concentrate on this season rather than throw everything into a title winning challenge in 2008. On the evidence of the opening races that seems to have been a mistake. In Bahrain Robert Kubica, who 12 months earlier sat on Pole, was trundling around at the back with team mate Nick Heidfeld. The team are trading at [90.0] for the Constructors title and I could list 90 reasons why they won't win it.

Unless they can seriously improve, expect the team to write off this season. That's not an option for Ferrari who may have scored their first points in Bahrain but still recorded their worst start to a season in 51 years competing in the sport. Their race pace isn't disastrous, but they need to improve over a single lap and the sight of both cars in qualifying three for the first time in Bahrain will give the team encouragement. So the price of [15.0] for the title might be realistic, especially if the new diffuser makes a difference.

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