Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 25 September 2008 /

The tide has been turning against Lewis Hamilton since the mid-season break and it's time to lay him in Singapore, says Ralph Ellis.

It's not been the best week for Lewis Hamilton. He spent a day in a Paris courtroom, and a couple of hours in the witness box getting rattled by a clever QC, only to learn that McClaren's attempt at an appeal over his time penalty in Belgium had stalled on the starting grid.

Then came a flight to Singapore, a schedule to stay on European time that means eating breakfast in the afternoon, and a first look at the crazy, futuristic circuit that will host the first Formula One race under floodlights. And now will come the test of whether he can hang on to his lead in the Drivers' Championship that for the second successive season is being slowly whittled away.

Hamilton, as ever, is full of bullish talk in this morning's papers about his preparation for a unique race. And the promise of rain should help the man who has taken over Michael Schumacher's mantle as the king of a wet track. But for a man who always prepares with complete attention to detail there's a sting in the tail of his quotes in this morning's Sun. In the very last two sentences he admits: "I've never raced at night before but don't think it will be a problem. I feel confident I can get the job done."

He may insist he feels confident, but how can anybody be sure about backing him at the tight odds on offer this morning of [2.62]? There are simply too many variables to risk that sort of a bet, and just as in Valencia when if you followed my tip to lay him at short odds you made money, it's time to bet against the sport's rising star again.

So much of sport depends on momentum, and the tide has been turning against Hamilton since the mid-season break, just as it did last year. His team have made errors in their choice of tactics and tyres, and Hamilton himself hasn't always raced to his normal crisp and incisive high standards. That will inevitably have planted a few doubts in the minds of everybody from the mechanics to the man behind the wheel and makes a trip into the unknown of floodlit racing a huge challenge.

You only need to have driven up the M1 at night in rain to know the problems that dazzle creates. If it does rain imagine that multiplied by several thousand for an idea of the visibility problems that are going to be created in Singapore's new track of 23 turns. Every one of those corners is an accident waiting to happen in the wet, and will threaten to turn the race into a lottery.

Of course Hamilton could still emerge triumphant - the cool weather won't help Ferrari's tyres - and [1.5] for a podium finish is a fairly safe investment. But as for winning it? There are just too many variables in this race to have any certainty at all.

Five things you might not know about driving - and racing - at night

1. Research has shown that people with perfect eyesight become temporarily short sighted when driving at night with headlights on

2. Only 25 per cent of travel on British roads takes place in the hours of darkness but 40 per cent of accidents happen

3. Of the teams at Singapore Toyota probably have the most experience of night racing through their involvement in the Le Mans 24 hour race. Driver Timo Glock also raced in the Champ car series in the US in 2005.

4. This might be Formula One's first floodlit race, but the British Touring Car Championship introduced their first night event at Snetterton in 1999 - although only the pit lane and spectator areas were lit while the course was in total darkness

5. Australia could be the next Forumula One venue to go floodlit. Melbourne officials are refusing to hold the race later for European TV audiences and Sydney's Eastern Creek track has put in a bid to stage it under lights.

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