Formula One / David Croft / 31 October 2008 /

The final race of the season is upon us and for the third year in a row Sao Paulo plays host to the title decider, a fitting scenario for this truly brilliant circuit and the second to none atmosphere generated by the Brazilian fans who will be packed into the grandstands long before the race gets underway on Sunday, writes David Croft.

So far this weekend the build up has been more like that of a heavyweight title fight than that of a Formula 1 Grand Prix. Their may be 20 drivers taking part on Sunday but as far as the media are concerned 18 are merely here to support the main showdown, a large under-card to the main event, Lewis Hamilton versus Felipe Massa for the championship of the world.

The spotlight was thrown upon the two contenders as early as Thursday morning with both Hamilton and Massa side by side at the FIA Press Conference. Both were asked about the pressure, the nerves, their hopes and fears. Both gave positive answers, very much on message , saying exactly the right things. Felipe Massa looked the more convincing to me, he even had time to crack a joke or two whilst Lewis had a guarded edge to him, the appearance of man trying to reign himself in and not appear over confident just in case it went wrong for him again.

Of course whatever was and will be said will be redundant come 5pm on Sunday evening when the racing takes over, when Lewis takes his 7 point Championship lead into one more battle. "It should' as David Coulthard remarked 'be a formality for Lewis. But this is Formula 1 and anything can happen." Which of course it did last year which make Mclarens' concerns about reliability all the more relevant, especially when you take into account the two engine failures in the last two races that have forced Heikki Kovalainen to retire and the fact that Lewis is running his Mercedes engine for the second race in a row. Felipe Massa, who has suffered from an engine blow out himself this season, robbing him of victory in Hungary, starts with a brand new Ferrari unit powering his car.

So let's look at Betfair's markets and try and work out what might happen. Firstly the weather forecast shows a 60% chance of rain on raceday. Should we get rain there's a likelihood that we'll see rivers of water across the track in certain sections (those that remember the 2003 race will be aware of this already). It follows then that the [1.9] on offer for the safety car to come out could be a decent bet.

Qualifying in 4 of the last 5 Brazilian Grand Prix has gone to Ferrari with Pole Position going to Felipe Massa in the last two years. It should follow then that the local boy could be the one to be on again, but with the Ferrari car still having trouble bringing it's tyres up to the optimum temperature for a flying lap he's no shoe-in. At [1.7] there's no value in backing Massa to win qualifying but at [5.7] there's plenty of value in his team-mate Kimi Raikkonen and Ferrari may opt to fill the Finn lighter with fuel in a bid to get him on Pole whereby if Felipe Massa nips past him at the start, Raikkonen can control the rest of the field whilst the Brazilian draws clear. It's only a theory but it wouldn't surprise me to see it happen.

As for the race you can back Felipe Massa at [2.36] and Lewis Hamilton at [3.85]. I'm tempted to opt for the Ferrari driver again but the weather forecast would concern me if I did. In the rain Hamilton is a different animal and a hugely impressive one at that. He says he's treating this like any other race, that means he'll be going for the win come Sunday, and in the wet there's no one better at the moment. In Friday first practice Massa was fastest, in second practice he was ahead of Hamilton as well, should it stay dry I'd side with him, watch out for the conditions then.

For those opting to bet without the big six, Sebastian Vettel looks terrific value at [5.3] to win that market and sign off from Torro Rosso with a decent points finish and the man he replaces at Red Bull next season, David Coulthard, is surely worth a sentimental bet at [5.0] for a scoring finish. He looked good in the early stages of practice on Friday afternoon and once again if the rain comes down he chances of coming home in the top eight are fairly decent.

Of course, the rain could also have an impact on how the title is won, heightening the chance of a first corner accident or either Hamilton or Massa making a mistake and crashing out. You can lay both at [1.2] in Betfair's 'Will they be Classified' market. I hope though that it doesn't come down to that. I can't see any skulduggery at the start as we had back in Suzuka in 1990 with Senna and Prost at the start, and Fernando Alonso was of the same view when asked about it on Thursday. I think we're all looking for a clean and fair fight, decided at the chequered flag not in the steward's room some while after. That would be a fitting end to a fascinating season, whoever comes out on top.

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