Formula 1 Betting: Contenders dither on the brink of history

Formula One / Thomas Cowie / 15 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton failed once again to take advantage of each other's mistakes in the Japanese Grand Prix. Tom Cowie wonders if either can take a decisive grip on the championship in China...

If there is one word to describe the atmosphere in the wake of Japan, that word is uncertainty - not only in terms of the identity of this year's world champion, but also regarding where Fernando Alonso will be plying his trade next year.

The Spaniard followed up his slightly fortunate win in Singapore with a much more assertive victory in Japan. His stock is soaring - vilified during his annus horribillis at McLaren, and forgotten amongst the midfield also rans this year, he has sent a timely reminder of his undoubted talent to team bosses up and down the pit lane.

For the second successive race, both championship protagonists failed to capitalise on the other's misfortune. Between them, they have amassed just eight points from the last two races. Their instinct, and more importantly their judgment has been clouded by the enormous pressure of the situation, and the magnitude of the prize on offer.

Would Hamilton have made the unnecessary dive inside Raikkonen in the first corner, flat spotting his tyres in the process, a month ago? Similarly, would Massa have run over the apex in a desperate attempt to stay ahead of the Englishman on only the second lap of the race?

Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton have traded blows for 16 rounds. With two rounds remaining, these quick-footed prizefighters have been reduced to sluggers, bouncing off the ropes and throwing wild, drunken punches in a bid to end the agony. Sooner or later, one of them is going to hit the canvas.

It was canvas of a different kind that dealt Hamilton's title challenge a fatal blow in China last year. Opting to stay out on worn tyres, McLaren pushed their luck too far. Hamilton slid in to retirement whilst attempting to pit, his tyres literally worn down to the canvas material beneath the rubber tread.

Raikkonen's subsequent victory was the third Ferrari win here in four years. As well as being a happy hunting ground for The Scuderia, the four-year-old Shanghai track already has a significant place in their history.

Raikkonen's victory here last year was Ferrari's 200th GP win. Michael Schumacher's triumph the previous year was his 91st and final career win - 14 years after his first.

Costing $240 Million, the Shanghai International Circuit is the most expensive in F1 history. It also features the trademark feature of it's designer Hermann Tilke - a long straight followed by a tight chicane. It is a rather unscientific method of trying to increase overtaking opportunities, and more often than not leads to crashes rather than passes.

After tripping over each other in Japan, Massa and Hamilton will be aiming not to be involved in any incidents this week. McLaren will be looking in to the cause of Heikki Kovalainen's retirement in Japan. After a season of excellent reliability, the last thing they need now is for the car to let them down, particularly as Ferrari's engine issues appear to have been rectified.

Robert Kubica's podium finish in Japan has allowed the Pole to come up on the rails - trailing by 12 points, he is the outsider's bet for the title, just as Raikkonen was this time last year. Kubica's presence will be an unwelcome distraction to Hamilton and Massa, but therein lies the irony. It is their total focus on each other which has resulted in the BMW man still being in with a shout.

Hamilton will be hoping to close out the championship here in China, although realistically this will require him winning and Massa finishing no better than fifth. Massa will be hoping that Ferrari's excellent record in Shanghai allows him a stay of execution, and a championship showdown in his native Brazil. As for Kubica, he'll just be hoping.