F1 Betting: Toyota surprise in China?

Formula One / Thomas Cowie / 15 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

This weekend F1 2009 continues its tour of the Far East, arriving in Shanghai for the Chinese Grand Prix. Tom Cowie sets the scene for the third installment of a remarkable season.

Malaysia two weeks ago provided Jenson Button and Brawn GP with their second consecutive race win, but not quite in the manner that the pre-race betting had suggested.

A typical late afternoon downpour brought a premature end to the race on lap 31, resulting in the top eight finishers only receiving half points on account of the race lasting less than 75% of the total distance.

Button was pushed hard early on and it was only his seriously quick pace in the dry part of the race that meant he was still leading when the red flag was flown, despite having made four tyre stops due to the changing conditions.

Sandwiching the Malaysian and Bahrainian races on the calendar, China's Shanghai circuit is the second in a hat-trick of tracks designed by German architect Hemann Tilke. Like the other two, the Shanghai circuit features a combination of fast sweeping corners and long straights, culminating in tight hairpin corners.

This year the race occupies an early season slot, having been run at the end of the season in it's previous five years. This should mean cooler temperatures which will come as a welcome relief to the drivers after the stifling conditions in Malaysia.

After a wet race in 2007, the 2008 installment was won in dry conditions from pole by Lewis Hamilton. He was joined on the podium by Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa, but it is unlikely that these three will be spraying champagne this time around.

Astonishingly, Ferrari (the 2008 Constructors Champions) are yet to register a point in 2009, hence the reason that Raikkonen and Massa are currently trading at [14.0] and [15.5] respectively to take victory on Sunday.

McLaren are not faring much better, with a single point for their efforts thus far. They are still a long way off the pace, and with Hamilton currently trading at [21.0], it is unlikely he will need to clear a space in his trophy cabinet any time soon.

As is becoming the norm this season, Brawn GP are the runaway favourites, with Button trading at [2.72], and Rubens Barrachello in the sister car at [7.4].

The smart money could well be on the team who have been quietly sneaking up on the rails - Toyota. Both drivers have visited the podium this year, and the team's maiden win cannot be far away.

They have huge resources, both in Japan, and at their European base in Cologne. They also have a mixture of experience and untapped potential in their drivers, Jarno Trulli and Timo Glock, who at [15.5] and [27.0] respectively, represent a very attractive proposition.

There is more than a little irony attached to Toyota and Brawn's current success. After years of excessive and ineffective spending, it has taken drastic budget cuts to finally allow Japan's two car giants to topple F1's elite - for now at least.

The second irony of course, is that it is Brawn GP, not Honda who are collecting the silverware and the plaudits, despite the fact that their car was conceived and designed before Honda threw in the F1 towel.

With Brawn and Toyota's diffusers now officially legal, the gauntlet has been laid down to the other teams to redesign their cars and catch up with the leading pack.

However, any changes they do make will not happen in time for this weekend's encounter, which if the market is to be believed, promises to be another Far Eastern homecoming for the teams from the Land of The Rising Sun.