F1 betting: Raikkonen, Hamilton and Massa not assured of podium finish

Formula One / David Croft / 14 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

The BBC's David Croft predicts that the opening race of the F1 season may throw up a few surprises that could see the likes of Mark Webber and Jarno Trulli being amongst the champagne-sprayers

I'm not asking for any sympathy here and I'm sure I won't get any but it was a coldish and blustery Wednesday morning down on the beach here in Melbourne. Even Lewis Hamilton felt the chill as he dipped his toes in the water ahead of the Vodafone Kayak Challenge, a little pre-season canoe race against a quartet of Aussie sports-stars and his Mclaren teammate Heikki Kovalainen.

The race saw the 6 athletes paddle out to sea before turning for home and racing up the beach to the finishing line. Lewis duly came in first but would have surely had to settle for the runners-up spot had Heikki not chosen to go via Finland before turning round. It smacked of team orders to me and I hope we don't see something similar on the track for the first race of the new season.

I doubt it, as when it comes to F1, Mclaren do still favour the old equality scenario which could give us a fascinating battle between the pair, and if Ferrari adopt the same policy that means there will be 4 guys on the track in Albert Park this weekend, all of whom have a chance of winning. That's the two Ferrari drivers and the two men at Mclaren, the chasing pack it appears will have to hope and pray for a collision in front to enhance their chances as before a wheel turns in anger the Ferrari and Mclaren cars look a fair way ahead.

Certainly that was the way it looked during the first practice session at the track. Kimi Raikkonen set the quickest time but the significance was the difference between Heikki Kovalainen, the fourth fastest driver and Mark Webber who was 5th quickest, a full eight tenths of a second, a massive margin in Formula 1 terms.

Now Webber managed to finish second fastest in the afternoon session, but was still a long way adrift. Lewis Hamilton was the fastest man but with the two Ferrari drivers concentrating on long runs with heavy fuel loads, their true pace was disguised.

One thing is for sure, if the high temperatures and stiff wind persists then the drivers will find it hard going throughout the weekend. Plenty ran off the track during both sessions as the conditions and a lack of grip on the track made the cars tricky to handle. Fernando Alonso made mention of the conditions as he and his Renault team had a far from perfect day.

So what does this mean for those wanting to have a bet this weekend? Well firstly Kimi Raikkonen at [2.18] with Betfair is understandably the favourite to win, but a short priced one at that. Lewis Hamilton at [3.75] looks far better value, especially if the Finn makes a mistake that allows the Mclaren driver to qualify ahead of him. Call it a hunch though but looking at the qualifying market the [3.9] for Felipe Massa to take pole does look tempting. Let's face it, he's as much chance as his team-mate and bar his bad luck with his gear box last year, may well have taken pole here that weekend. What is for sure is that bar a similar disaster for any one of the top four, they will be the ones going for the front row in a new 10 minute third qualifying session.

The trouble for the top 4 will come in the race, it so often does at the start of the season either through reliability or a coming together at the start. Take into account the removal of driver aids such as traction and launch control this season and the chance for an upset on the podium is a high one. Here you'll find plenty of fans and even some team personnel here at the track talking up their particular favourites chances.

Take a friend of mine at Toyota for instance who is convinced that Jarno Trulli could finish in the top 3. Well, Betfair's market has him at [22] to do so, I advised him to open an account and put his money where his mouth is. Far more realistic is Mark Webber at [8.2] who like Trulli qualifies well and could be in a position to take advantage of any trouble. Robert Kubica at [8.6] is another you could be tempted by but on the eve of the first race we all have our theories, the exciting thing for me is that the talking is about to stop and the action is nearly back. I can't wait for the season to get going, like Lewis Hamilton said, 'it's been a long winter'.