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F1 betting: Kovalainen can be top camel in the Bahrain desert

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David Croft tells us why the sand and dust in Bahrain can throw up a few surprises, starting with a maiden victory for Lewis Hamilton's team-mate Heiki Kovalainen

Bahrain isn't famous for much; one of the reasons that the Kingdom was so keen to have a Formula 1 Grand Prix was to put this dusty isle on the map in the first place.
This year marks the 5th anniversary of the race and as ever the organisers have put on a fantastic welcome for the teams, media and hopefully a sell out crowd come race day.

Their efforts to remember Bahrain as the 'friendly race' may count for little this year as those of us here will remember this week for a topic outside of the racing itself. The conversation so far at least has centred on the FIA President Max Mosley and his future as the head of the sports governing body. The dominoes have started to topple with F1 Manufacturers and National Motoring Associations questioning his commitment to remain at the helm. Only time will tell how much of a future Mr Mosley has in motor racing so for the immediate future let's get back to the racing

Friday practice here confirmed one thing, due to the fact that's its situation in the middle of a desert this track is dusty and dusty means slippy, and slippy means tricky for the 22 drivers. Sebastian Bourdais could be heard during the afternoon telling his Toro Rosso team that because of the sand blown onto the track, the car feels like it's sliding around all over the place. Nico Rosberg joined him in reporting that he was struggling with the handling of his Williams whilst David Coulthard said he was struggling with the rear of his Red Bull and this trio weren't alone.

The sand was causing a lack of grip, especially out of the three slow corners and under breaking into the final turn. Meanwhile the wind, which had changed direction from the previous day was blowing the sand on to the track and affecting the cars under breaking.

So although the leading contenders have been setting the pace, the tricky conditions could point to an upset or two this weekend.

Don't be surprised to see a BMW on the front row. Buoyed by his magnificent podium in Malaysia, Robert Kubica could break the Ferrari/Mclaren monopoly when it comes to pole position, Betfair offer [23.0] that he can. Personally, I like the [4.3] on offer for Kubica to make it three podiums out of three this season for BMW, a team who are making consistency their benchmark at the moment.

As for Ferrari, Felipe Massa needs a big solid weekend after failing to finish in either Australia or Malaysia. Which means he's under pressure and although he stormed to victory here last year I'm not expecting a repeat. Those that think the pressure will get to the Brazilian can lay him at [3.5] for Sunday's race.

One thing I am expecting is a much closer match between the Ferraris and Mclarens, not that we saw similar times during Friday practice. Felipe Massa topped the time sheets in both sessions with Lewis Hamilton 1.4 seconds slower in the afternoon. How much that had to do with his accident that cut short his session we'll wait and see but personally I think he's exceptional value at [5.2] to win on Sunday, but he's not the man I'm backing.

I do think we might get an upset and a result that may just upset the mood of Lewis Hamilton, whose team-mate drove brilliantly to finish 3rd after starting 8th in Malaysia. Heiki Kovalainen is enjoying himself tremendously at Mclaren and although he appears smiley and laid back from the outside, is seriously quick and determined on the inside. This could be the weekend where he becomes part of a very select club by taking his maiden F1 victory, the 99th driver to win in the sport. You can back him at [8.8 ] with Betfair. Either way, if he was to win, he'd be odds on to detract attention away from the politics, at least until the champagne is finished.