F1 Betting: Can Kovalainen cause an upset in Italy?

Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 11 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ralph Ellis wonders if McLaren's other driver might be about to throw a spanner in the works of the driver's championship.

Great things, statistics. When you see that Ferrari have won the Italian Grand Prix on five of the last eight occasions it's pretty clear that Felipe Massa should be favourite to do it again on Sunday. On the other hand McLaren took two of the last three, so maybe Lewis Hamilton is the man to back.

But here's another thought: Is this the time that Heikki Kovalainen ends his season as the "other" McLaren driver and suddenly gets the Championship race completely confused?

The Finn has been everything but flying in his first season with the team so far, and has drifted to sixth in the title race. But he's warning in this morning's Daily Star that he still has the target of winning at least one more race to go with his solitary success in Hungary before the campaign is over.

"I'm improving all the time and the whole package is getting better," he says. "I'm looking forward with confidence and there is more to come from me. On the one hand I'm happy to have won a race in my first season at McLaren and to have scored the points I have - on the other there was a run of four races when I scored only one point and that was disappointing. The Italians are really passionate about Formula One and there are always a lot of Ferrari supporters in Monza, obviously, so to win there would be very special for me."

Certainly McLaren need him to get in gear a bit sharpish. Ferrari are now 12 points clear in the Constructors Championship and as tight as [1.41] to still be there at the end of the season. That reflects the fact that both Massa and Kimi Raikkonen have both been chipping in points while Kovalainen has not kept his share up. It means he's under pressure from boss Ron Dennis to perform this weekend. McLaren, incidentally, are [3.4] to make up the difference in the final four races.

Kovalainen is a remarkable [19.5] to produce the win he wants on Sunday, and given that his car has the capability to be at the front of the race that's a long shot worth looking at. It certainly represents better value than backing Hamilton at just [1.69] for the Drivers Championship. He only has a two point lead, don't forget, and there's little guarantee he'll be handed back the points from Belgium when McLaren's appeal is heard, whatever the perceived injustice of his penalty at the chicane on the last but one lap. It was also at Monza last year when his grip on the title began to slip.

Hamilton went into that race with a five point lead but finished second to his team mate Fernando Alonso as their duel got bitter. And while Kovalainen refused to discuss the idea of damaging Hamitlon's title ambitions in his Daily Star interview, there's a definite danger for the British driver of seeing his hopes escape again this weekend.

Five things you might not know about Heikki Kovalainen

1. His solitary success so far this season in Hungary made him the 100th different driver to win a Formula One Grand Prix

2. He's planning to marry his British girlfriend Catherine Hyde, a sports psychology student, on October 10 2010.

3. She's done well to tie him down. He once listed his interests for a fan website as "pasta, sport, girls, fast cars". Maybe she's a good pasta cook!

4. After going through Karting and Formula Three racing, he was the first non rally driver to win the Race of Champions in the Stade de France in 2004 - even though he had never sat in a rally car before

5. He doesn't do Formula One fashion. He says: "I wear the same jeans and the same T-shirts all the time, although they have been washed!"