European Grand Prix: Street racing man Hamilton wary of up for it Raikkonen

Formula One / David Croft / 22 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

Expect fun, games and unlikely results on an unknown track, says David Croft.

It's a fair bet this weekend that we can expect some fun and games in Valencia. Some strange results on an unknown track and an appearance or two - or maybe even four - of the Safety Car, such is the close proximity of the concrete walls to the racing line. [1.38] in Betfair's market says we do see it come out, I wouldn't bet against it.

Having ridden around the 3.4 miles on Thursday evening it's clear that at the end of the three long straights there is a chance to overtake which should give plenty of encouragement to the 20 drivers to put on a show as they step into the unknown.

This is the debut of the Valencia street circuit on the F1 calendar becoming the 65th different track to be used in the sport and the first street circuit for 12 years. What was clear from first practice on Friday morning was that no amount of simulations beforehand could properly pre pare the drivers for a circuit that was dusty and lacked grip. By the time we get to qualifying the grip problem should have disappeared and the lap times are expected to be hovering around the 1 minute 37 second mark.

The fastest time we had in Friday's two practice sessions belonged to Kimi Raikkonen with 1 minute 39.467 seconds. The Finn pipped Fernando Alonso by the merest of margins, this time around just two hundredths of a second. Alonso over the last three years has done well at the European Grand Prix, winning the last two and finishing second in 2005. This may be a completely different circuit to the Nurburgring where he won last year but he has home advantage and we've seen in the past what a different that can make. It certainly inspired him in Barcelona back in April when from second on the grid he was running a comfortable and impressive third until his engine blew. For that reason along I think the price of [6.2] with Betfair for Fernando to finish on the podium or the price of [3.0] to win the race without the big four is worth looking at.

As for the Big Four Kimi Raikkonen's comments that it was time now to start compromising his Ferrari's race pace in a bid to qualify higher up the grid have to be taken on board. Fastest this afternoon the world champion is a [4.1] chance to qualify on pole and despite his absence from the front row in the last three races, he looks a little more up for the challenge this weekend and I expect him to go well.

Lewis Hamilton, as you would expect from the Championship leader, is a short price to take pole and to win the race - [2.32] to win qualifying and [2.56] to win the race. I'm not for one minute knocking his chances of success this weekend; with victories in Monaco, Montreal and Melbourne under his belt he has to be regarded as one of the best street races out there. But Hungary showed that Mclaren don't have a superior advantage over Ferrari during the course of the race and for backers there's better value to be had elsewhere.

Jenson Button produced the third fastest time on Friday afternoon but as much as I'd like to see him on the podium come Sunday's race he may find others far too quick once again. However should the safety car appear at the wrong time for others he may be one of those in midfield who luck into the perfect strategy, just as Nelson Piquet did in coming second after Timo Glocks crash in Germany last month.

Talking of Timo Glock he's one man I do expect to go well this weekend. Fresh from his marvellous second place in Hungary he comes here full of confidence and happy that Toyota after a rocky period seem to be heading the right direction at last. Glock raced in the Champ Car series in 2005 on tracks very similar to this one in Valencia so the concrete walls will hold no fear. Expect him to finish comfortably in the points. Betfair's points market has him available at [1.8].