Canadan Grand Prix Betting: Can Kubica shine in Montreal?

Formula One / David Croft / 07 June 2008 / 1 Comments

Radio Five's David Croft on Sunday's Canadian Grand Prix

Thursday's drivers' press conference here in Montreal featured two topics of conversation. Firstly there was a barrage of questions to Kimi Raikkonen regarding his future in the sport; 'Were the rumours about him quitting at the end of next season true?' and 'what did he intend to do once he stopped racing', a subject he manfully tried to sidestep with an air of indifference to those desperate for a scoop. And to Robert Kubica 'Are you nervous about returning to the scene of your high speed accident last year' 'Was the crash occupying your thoughts ahead of the race?'

Good on the Polish driver he not only answered the questions on a topic that no driver really likes to discuss but he also stated quite bluntly that after the session he wouldn't be talking about it at all. This showed the mark of a man who means business this weekend and wasn't in the mood to be distracted by a topic he didn't feel was particularly relevant. Not that he minded being asked, he told me that he understood why the media pack were concentrating on the incident, but he just wanted to forget about it now and concentrate on the job in hand.

That job in hand this weekend could be his and BMW's first win. It's not beyond the realms of possibility and although Ferrari and Mclaren start as obvious favourites, this track presents the Swiss/German team with its best opportunity for that first F1 victory.

Last year, in a race where the safety car appeared four times, Nick Heidfeld dodged the carnage to come home an impressive second. Robert Kubica struggled but without traction control and engine breaking systems he's been a totally different prospect in 2008. He could have opened up the season with a pole position in Australia had he not made a slight error on his flying lap. In Bahrain he did bag first spot and this track in Montreal has many similarities with the desert circuit. They're not identical but do feature long straights and tight corners so straight line speed and heavy breaking come into the equation - a factor in BMW's favour.

Friday morning's practice session saw Kubica post the second fastest time, three tenths of a second faster than the leading Mclaren and only a couple of tenths behind Felipe Massa who often fails to score top marks for consistency a factor that will count against him here. We saw the evidence during the race in Monaco when he went straight on at Ste Devote, we saw it in first practice here when he went sliding onto the grass. For some reason a wet track brings out the worst in the Brazilian. Sure there's more to come from the likes of Lewis Hamilton and Raikkonen but in Kubica there's value to be had in Betfair's market and a great shout of ending the weekend with a handsome return. He's currently best priced at [12.5] to win and [11.0] for qualifying with the win/qualifying double a tempting [25.0], the last two winners of the Canadian Grand Prix have both done it from pole position and I wouldn't be surprised to see that become a hat-trick on Sunday.

Nor would I be surprised if the safety car comes out at least a couple of times. [1.31] with Betfair is a short price for it to do so but like Monaco this race does see its fair share of incidents.

But it would be no accident for me to see Robert Kubica come good this Sunday, and after another week of bad headlines for the sport, the perfect tonic for the fans. Just in case you want to hedge your bets though. Betfair's winning car market has BMW at [12.5]. Heidfeld hasn't had the best of season but don't count him out and it does make more sense to double your chance for the same price.

Comments (1)

1. F1Punter | 08 June 2008

   Excellent work David.