British Grand Prix Betting: Patriotic punts on hold until cars are on the circuit

Formula One / David Croft / 02 July 2008 / 1 Comments

But whatever pressure Lewis Hamilton is feeling will fall away should he be standing on top of the podium at around 2:45 on Sunday.

As part of BBC Radio 5-live's build up to the British Grand Prix I've notched up a couple of firsts this week. For one; I'd never set foot in a Ferrari before and two; I'd never been a passenger on a flying lap of the 3.2-mile circuit either.

The idea was that I'd interview Damon Hill as he drove a few laps of the track in an F430, in idea that I have to say was bloody brilliant. Despite a few stomach-churning moments as the last British man to win the F1 title threw the car through Becketts and drifted almost off the tarmac on the exit of Club, it was an awesome experience. Only when you drive or ride round Silverstone do you appreciate its demands, the brakes for instance are first applied halfway round, until Stowe corner it's flat out whatever you're driving. Only when you're there in the flesh do you understand why the drivers love it and what punishment they and their cars suffer.

It's a track for the brave, the fearless, the thrill seeker. An adventure for the fast and furious and a place that deserves a future in F1, not a constant threat to its place on the calendar.

This weekend Silverstone will be a sell-out on all three days and I daresay that most of the 240,000 fans will be routing for the one British driver that has a realistic chance of victory. Whatever pressure Lewis Hamilton is feeling at the moment, and he's feeling a fair amount, it will all fall off his shoulders at 2.45pm on Sunday should he be the man standing on top of the podium. The question is though, is that a realistic expectation?

Last year it wasn't, despite that storming drive to take pole. Come the race Kimi Raikkonen was lapping almost half a second quicker than his rivals, such was the superior advantage the Ferrari's enjoyed. It would have been a one-two for the Italian team had Massa not started from the back of the grid, in many ways his fifth placed finish was the drive of the race.

This year the Ferrari's will be there again, the car goes well at tracks with high speed corners, but the test last week suggested that it will be a much more closely fought contest. That's why you can back Lewis to win with Betfair at [3.75] and Kimi at Raikkonen at [2.6]. The Finn deserves favourite status with history suggesting that this is a track that suits him down to the ground. Sunday will be his 8th British Grand Prix and so far he's notched up one win, one second place, three third place finishes, three spots on the front row, including pole in 2004.

However, those punters who ignore his team-mate do so at their peril. Felipe Massa is a highly tempting [4.2], he leads the championship and is driving with more maturity than we've seen in previous seasons. For value alone he gets my nod this weekend.

Massa also represents decent value in the qualifying market. Given that he's beaten Raikkonen in qualifying on five occasions out of eight his price of [3.95] as opposed to Kimi's [3.5] is worth a look. Lewis Hamilton is trading at [3.55] but until we get to see the cars on the circuit on Friday I'd put any patriotic punts on hold. Last year Lewis went light in qualifying to grab that pole but it ruined his race, Mclaren may not be so keen to adopt that policy again.

One bet I might be tempted to have now rather than later is for the number of finishers to be under [13.5]. Backers can get a best price of [2.4]. Last year in the dry there were only six retirements out of 22, however a quick glance at the weather forecast tells me that there is a 60% chance of rain on race day which if it comes during the race will cause plenty of problems. Standing water and no traction control well lead to spins and crashes, which in the circumstances make that price very attractive.

Comments (1)

1. ian | 03 July 2008

   I really hope that Lewis Hamilton will win at Silverstone. He is a fine young man and a terrific F1 driver but I fear that the pressure of expectation might be too much for him.