Brazilian Grand-Prix Betting Preview: Button aims for glory on circuit of dreams

Formula One / David Croft / 17 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Given that Button has finished on the podium only once since Turkey, third or better is a big ask here. That the Brit is priced at [3.8] for a podium so I’m not the only one with that opinion."

Jenson Button has lead the Drivers' Championship all season so can he become the 13th British Champion at Interlagos on Sunday? David Croft selects the bets.

There's something about Interlagos and title deciders. For the last 4 seasons this is where matters have been settled, this cathedral of motorsport in the middle of a vast sprawling city. A track that attracts the unexpected, be it a move on the very last section of the very last lap as we had with Lewis Hamilton last year or a first corner puncture that dropped Michael Schumacher down into last place effectively ending his faint hopes in 2006.

This is the circuit of dreams, or nightmares, where the passion and the fanaticism of the faithful are rewarded with some classic encounters.

This year it's where Jenson Button can follow in the footsteps of Lewis Hamilton and become the 13th British driver to become champion. Or will it be yet another frustrating afternoon for the man who has lead the way since the very first race?

On paper his task is a simple one, third place is all Button needs to cement his place in history. A podium finish would rule out both Rubens Barrichello and Sebastian Vettel in one blow. But given that Button has finished on the podium only once since Turkey, it's a big ask and maybe too big a demand. Given that Button is priced at [3.8] with Betfair to come home in the top three, then maybe I'm not the only one with that opinion.

At the start of the season he enjoyed a massive mechanical advantage over the rest of the field, aside from his team-mate, who at the time wasn't getting the best out of his Brawn car. Now he goes into a race knowing that the two Red Bull's, and more specifically here in Brazil, Lewis Hamilton's McLaren have the upper hand before the lights go out.

The advantage for Lewis comes through his KERS system. At high altitude with engine performance limited, the McLaren KERS boost is far more significant here than at any other circuit. That means that on the long drag at full throttle from turn 12 to the finish, Hamilton will be flying. Kovalainen too and possibly Raikkonen in his Ferrari. Staying ahead of the KERS cars could be an impossibility.

Hamilton I notice is [3.9] for the race. Should it stay dry, and the forecast as it stands is for showers come race time, that is a wonderfully generous price. Even in the wet, Hamilton will be close, although Vettel does tend to come into his own in the rain and at [3.05] must be considered.

Lewis has actually never lead a lap in Interlagos, but that stat should end this weekend. I fully expect him to be on pole too as he gets the benefit of the KERS boost to end his out lap and then a fresh charge as soon as he crosses the line. Betfair's market has the British driver at [4.3] to win qualifying - bag that top spot.

Button too will have to contend with a rejuvenated Barrichello. He looked very much at ease in practice and has obviously enjoyed the time he's spent with his family here in Sao Paulo this week. Rubens is a family man through and through, and it makes a big difference to him to be in the company of his loved ones going into the race. Betfair punters can back the Brazilian at [7.6] for the win and [2.28] for the podium.

I was impressed with the pace of Sebastian Buemi in the Torro Rosso in the two practice sessions. I just wonder if he can hold it together to finish in the points on Sunday. If the Red Bulls go well here, it makes sense to expect their sister team to be in with a sniff of a top eight finish as well. Betfair offer [2.22] to pick up a point or two and he could be the best of the outside bets.