Belgian Grand Prix Betting: Red Bull can carry the fight on overtakers' track

Formula One / David Croft / 28 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"We will get overtaking this weekend, we should get a decent race, we may even have more rain. But one thing we’re definitely expecting is a Red Bull win."

Dave Croft is at the Eau Rouge - a fast, tricky track for the brave - and, after the procession in Valencia, our man is looking forward to an exciting race with lots of overtaking.

Valencia and Spa are 1600km apart which has made life very difficult for the teams this week.

The task of transporting this sport round the world is a herculean effort at the best of times, but the rush in getting the transporters loaded and then unpacked in time for this weekend's race, along with the dismantling of the motor homes, only to be rebuilt a couple of days later, has been huge.

Bigger even than the gulf in class between the two tracks themselves. Whilst Valencia was a challenge in certain ways for the drivers, it didn't exactly promote overtaking. The race wasn't dull by any means, but it did become rather processional and sadly that didn't come as a surprise either.

Spa on the other hand is immense, one of the great circuits on the calendar. At 4.3 miles long it twists and winds itself through the Ardennes Forest. Fast, tricky and one for the fearless even though Eau Rouge isn't the terror it once was. Looking at it though you just can't imagine what it must be like to speed down and then sharply uphill at 190mph with your backside just inches from the tarmac, your face pointing directly at the sky above. And if you get it wrong, then you're a sitting duck for those behind you, closing in and then surely passing by the time you apply the breaks going into the chicane at Les Combes.

We will get overtaking this weekend, we should get a decent race, we may even have more rain. But one thing we're definitely expecting is a Red Bull win. This track, as was Silverstone, should be ideal for the Milton Keynes team to take the fight back to Brawn once again.

The trouble they've got though is engines. Sebastian Vettel has blown up half of his allocation for this season and now has just two new race engines left. This means that his practice will be severely curtailed as he saves the engines he's got left. As his boss Christian Horner said this morning: 'Sebastian will be taking an extended coffee break in the next 90 minutes.' And he did, coming out for just one lap before breathing a huge sigh of relief as the rain forced the rest of the field into their garages, limiting their track time too.

So no one really got a handle on set up and which way to go. Jarno Trulli was the fastest man on the track but in a false position as it was early on in the session that he set his time and the leading contenders hadn't been out much. Which came as something of a surprise given that rain was in the air and it made sense to get as much dry running in as possible. Sadly we had a twenty minute spell when nobody came out, the some brief action before it started chucking it down.

Jenson Button did get some dry running in but not enough for Brawn to know whether they finally have a handle on why their car doesn't get its tyres up to the working temperature fast enough, just one of the reasons why when it's cold they have a significant disadvantage against Red Bull who don't have the tyre problems and also go well on a track full of high speed corners, such as here at Spa. He's not expecting a win this weekend. At [11.5] Betfair customers seem to have deserted him too.

Rubens Barrichello, after that excellent win last weekend is trading at [14.5] and I can't see him winning at Spa for the first time either. But the question for the title race is by how much can Brawn limit the damage. Should Vettel not blow an engine, which in these cooler conditions should be a reasonable ask, he'll be there or thereabouts, even if he can't get much running on the Friday. But at [4.1] I wouldn't want to risk him. Given that Mark Webber in the same car is trading at [5.1] and the Aussie is in the form of his life this season, I'd be siding with him when it comes to the Red Bull battle.

Strangely, Lewis Hamilton is also in the mix. KERS will help him in Spa, but surely McLaren haven't improved on high speed corners enough for him to think about a win, have they? Bahrain, Hungary, Valencia, Lewis did well on those circuits. Silverstone, Turkey, Barcelona, Lewis and McLaren struggled. For those thinking of siding with the world champion bear in mind that Spa is more closely allied to the latter three than the former. His should score points, possibly given a bit of a luck a podium too (he's [2.2] to do so) but a win might be too big an ask.

But if you're looking for an outsider for a podium, maybe Nico Rosberg is worth a look. The Williams driver has finished in the top 5 in the last 5 races and is brilliantly consistent. He needs a little bit of luck but not a huge amount and should he qualify in the top five on Saturday, that [6.2] for him to come home in the top three may look very generous indeed.