Bahrain Grand Prix Betting: Brawn bullish amid desert frenzy

Formula One / David Croft / 24 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

With teams working around the clock to improve their cars, will an outsider gatecrash Sunday's Grand Prix or will we see another duel between the Brawns and the Bulls? David Croft reports from Bahrain.

So here we are then, at our fourth racetrack in five weeks. This has been the most hectic start to a season that any of us can remember. Not just those in the media centre for whom the last month has been pretty non-stop, but for those guys in the garages who are accustomed to long hours but are finding their schedule even more demanding as more new parts are flown out to fit on to the cars.

Ian Philips, my co-commentator for the second practice session on Friday afternoon, was telling us that the crew in the Force India garage had two-and-a-half hours sleep on Thursday night so that they could fit the new floor, interim diffuser and new front wing to both cars. The reward for the guys was Adrian Sutil setting the seventh fastest time in the session. The updates should be worth around half a second a lap so could this be the race where one of their cars gets into the second part of qualifying?

Meanwhile Renault, Toyota, McLaren and Red Bull have all introduced changes. In Renault's case it means the interim diffuser will feature on both cars for this race so Nelson Piquet has no excuses. Toyota have tweaked their front wing so it looks like their cars have a pair of walrus tusks pointing inward from the end plates. It's so competitive and understandable that each team are trying to eek out the maximum performance advantage they can. To underline the closeness on the track, Friday's second session saw just 1.4 seconds separate the fastest and slowest times. Incredible given the regulation changes we witnessed at the start of the season.

But even given the closeness we're currently witnessing, the feeling still remains that the Bahrain Grand Prix could feature another duel between the Brawn's and the Bulls. Toyota tested here during the winter and remain an outside chance for a podium, Jarno Trulli is best priced [2.6] with Betfair and Timo Glock - who I personally favour - is a [2.8] chance. They'll go well but possibly not well enough.

Looking at the handling of the cars towards the end of the session, it suggested that both Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber were running heavy fuel loads. If they were to finish fourth and fifth, fastest was a very good effort. Jenson Button who was sixth quickest appeared to be carrying plenty of fuel too but his Brawn GP looked more at ease through the 3.4 miles and was running far smoother, the British driver wasn't exactly fighting his machinery and struggling to stay on track.

Traditionally in qualifying we've seen the Brawn GP cars run heavier than Red Bull, giving them a clear track in which to open up an advantage before they pit for the first time. In the first two races Button still took pole, in China Red Bull went very aggressive with their strategy and nearly paid for it, the rain and subsequent Safety Car start was a blessing for them and their backers.

This week Red Bull may run lighter again which on paper would make Sebastian Vettel at [5.6] an attractive proposition for pole. But on a track where traction out of the slow corners is king, Button and the Brawn car could rule. Only three hundredths of a second split Button and Vettel in second practice and even without knowing the exact fuel loads at the time, the hunch is that the Brit was heavier.

At [1.95] Button's the man I'd be on for qualifying and subsequently the race. [1.8] is short but so far this year the man on pole has taken the chequered flag first on all three occasions and if Button is allowed clear air from the start the rest of the field might not live with him.

Mark Webber is the other driver to throw into this equation. At [15.5] for qualifying and [21.0] for the race you wouldn't have to lay down much to get a good return, but you're relying on problems for Button or Vettel for that bet to come in and the [3.4] for a podium looks much more appetising.

Meanwhile, Ferrari remain hopeful that whatever upgrades are coming their way to make a huge difference in Spain. The body language in their garage and especially of the drivers is not good and a sure sign that they are not expecting more than just to make up the numbers this weekend. McLaren should run into the points which means that Lewis Hamilton and Heikki Kovalainen could be competing with the likes of Nico Rosberg and Sebastien Buemi down in sixth, seventh and eighth. I

like Buemi and have been impressed by his attitude and ability in the opening rounds and at [3.4] he looks good value to get into the points, driving what is effectively the Red Bull car we saw in Australia. A car, remember, that would have finished on the podium had Vettel not run into Robert Kubica.

Whatever happens this weekend, we should, unless they get the freakiest weather ever experienced on this island, get a dry race. Finally we should see the pecking order as it stands and from what I've seen so far, the rest of the field might be staring upwards at Button and Brawn once again.