Australian Grand Prix Betting: Can Rosberg go on and Nico it?

Formula One / David Croft / 27 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Formula One commentator David Croft admits to not being as surprised as some by the lightning quick pace of Nico Rosberg yesterday. But can he go on and actually win the race? If not, then who should your money be on instead?

First Practice ahead of the first race of the season, the time when the expectation stops and the realisation kicks in. Some will enjoy their efforts in the autumnal surroundings of Albert Park, some will find no time to enjoy the scenery, nor the situation they find themselves in as they battle to find those extra tenths of a second that turn disappointment into delight.

What an interesting day it's been - did we really expect to see Nico Rosberg top the timings in both sessions? Did we think a Williams one-two was possible, or that Toyota and Brawn GP would consistently set strong times as the minutes ticked by? Well we should have done. The clue to their pace was revealed by the actions of the previous night when Ferrari, Red Bull and Renault all protested the cars of the aforementioned teams. Had they not been expected to dominate, why protest their legality? The rumour in the Paddock was that whilst the Stewards deliberated, work was already underway elsewhere to find a similar solution to the diffuser debate. As the saying goes: if you can't beat em', join em and should the Court of Appeal uphold the stewards' decision to reject the protests, the chasing pack will most definitely need to find a solution quickly

Whether the design of the diffusers in question is eventually found to be legal or not will be irrelevant for punters this weekend. The fact that 6 out of the top 7 times from this afternoon was set by those teams under the spotlight does rather point to the fact that they are the ones to catch.

That's not to suggest that others haven't been hiding their pace in the shadows but judging by the evidence before our eyes, this may be a race where the form book from previous years is thrown out of the window. Not that that should come as a surprise as after all given the plethora of regulation changes instigated for this season, the clever and the cunning were bound to come out on top.

Of course in sport anything can still happen, the high attrition rate at this circuit accounted for all but 6 cars last year as 16 failed to reach the Chequered flag and [1.55] is the best price you'll get on less than 14.5 finishers this year. A likely outcome when you take the extra width of the new front wings into account and the fact the new regs promote closer racing thus increasing the chances of a collision.

So those with the best car may still not necessarily win, but in the case of one or two, they might be a long way clear of any of the carnage behind them. To me the Brawn GP duo of Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello could well have been disguising how good they really are, something Ross Brawn, the team owner, mastered during his years with Ferrari. Button, [6.0] for the race, may have an issue to deal with when generating heat into his tyres and if so, that could affect his qualifying position - he's [4.6] to win the session. It's all down to his smooth driving style, not a problem affecting his team mate Rubens Barrichello, who's [6.4] to win qualifying and [6.8] to win the race, a shade better value and on the evidence of his Friday efforts he clearly has no problem with either track nor car.

Fellow veteran Jarno Trulli also looked impressive for a Toyota team who have huge confidence in the car they've designed for him. Trulli's efforts in qualifying over the years earn him the chance to be right up there at the sharp end and the Italian looks excellent value at [13.0] to win qualifying and [3.8] to land one of the podium places.

Especially with Kimi Raikkonen trading at [2.4] in that market in a Ferrari car that looked better in the first session than it did in the second, he did though look more at ease with his new car than his 2008 version. Ferrari team principal Stefano Dominicali warned against making too many hasty judgements on the evidence of one day, which is why I won't write off theirs nor Mclaren's chances just yet, although forgive me if I don't place my faith in back to back Australian Grand Prix wins for Lewis Hamilton. You can lay Hamilton at [2.5] not to get into the final part of qualifying and it's my understanding that the team will consider it a stroke of good fortune if Lewis does make it into the final ten.

Nico Rosberg believes he and his Williams team are in a better place than they thought they might be. At [9.4] to win the race he might attract some followers who wish to join him there. But whilst he has the brains - he could have studied Aerodynamics at Imperial College London but turned down his place to go racing instead - he hasn't got the BRAWN and it might just be that team instead that takes the honours this weekend.