Australian Grand Prix Betting: A wide open season opener

Formula One / Thomas Cowie / 24 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

This could be a vintage year for Formula 1 and the combination of a dusty, slippery track, bottle-necking corners, race-rusty drivers and new rules makes for an Australian GP which any number of drivers could win, says Tom Cowie.

The moment when the five red lights go out in Melbourne on Sunday to herald the start of the 2009 F1 season, will represent a watershed in the sport's history.

The raft of changes has leveled the playing field and helped to bridge the enormous gulf between the budgets of the manufacturer owned teams and the privateers.

Rising from the ashes of the Honda team, Brawn GP have impressed in testing and have a hugely experienced driver line-up in Jenson Button and Rubens Barrachello. Oh, and they are led by the tactical genius of Ross Brawn - Michael Schumachers' Sixth sense on the pit wall throughout his F1 career and the architect of some of the German's most audacious victories.

The new regulations mean that good technical input will be vital and this will benefit teams like Force India and Toyota, where experienced drivers such as Mark Webber , Giancarlo Fisichella and Jarno Trulli could really come into their own.

Technical input is not a strength attributed to Kimi Raikkonen. First impressions are that the 2009 Ferrari is quick, but the real question is which driver will lead the team? Last year, Felipe Massa eclipsed his more experienced team-mate in every department and came within a whisker of snatching the Championship.

Melbourne's Albert Park rightly calls itself 'A great place for the race', and has become the established venue for the season opener since 1996, replacing the hugely popular street circuit at Adelaide which conversely hosted the season finale for 10 years up to 1995.

Albert Park is certainly a happy hunting ground for F1's elite - of the 13 races it has hosted, 10 have been won by either Mclaren or Ferrari, with Williams and Renault the only other teams to have taken the chequered flag here.

Melbourne can also claim to be a fairly accurate indicator of the identity of the Champion elect - on a staggering nine out of 13 occasions, the race winner has gone on to take the World title, starting with Damon Hill's victory at the inaugural race in 1996, stretching all the way through to Lewis Hamilton's triumph here last year.

It is not a permanent circuit, so it can be dusty and slippery, and the combination of slow and high speed sections makes set up tricky. The race also trends to be a rather attritional affair, due to a combination of bottle necking corners, race rusty drivers, and early season reliability issues.

Last year, only six cars finished, with Heidfeld and Rosberg claiming a podium finish, despite starting Fifth and Seventh respectively - unfortunately for both drivers, it proved to be a false dawn.

The market reflects the unpredictable nature of the race - the big news is that Button is trading at [5.4], compared to Raikkonen at [7.2], and Massa at [8.8], but Hamilton at [9.4] is a clear signal that although willing, the Mclaren is not currently expected to deliver.

Fernando Alonso is the dark horse, shorter than Hamilton and Massa at [7.6]. He is pound for pound the best driver on the grid, and if he finds a half decent car under him, he could be more than a handful for the likes of Hamilton, Massa, Raikkonen and Kubica.

Melbourne provides a genuine opportunity for a surprise result, or alternatively a chance for a frontrunner to lay down the gauntlet to their Championship rivals. Thrills and spills are almost guaranteed as the 60th Formula One World Championship blasts in to life on Sunday morning.