Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Odds: Record-breaker Vettel grabs pole

Formula One / James Frankland / 12 November 2011 /

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Vettel emerges out of the pits in Abu Dhabi

"Vettel is the only man to win in Abu Dhabi since the race began in 2009 and he wants to make it a hat-trick."

...and he should go on to win on Sunday, too, says James Frankland in his post-qualifying betting report on the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Sebastian Vettel must be wishing the 2011 season would never end. In qualifying for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix the 24-year old double world champion equalled Nigel Mansell's 1992 record of 14 pole positions in a season, giving him a chance to break the record outright in Brazil in two weeks time.

If Vettel wins tomorrow and then takes the chequered flag first in Brazil, he'll also equal the record for most wins in a season, currently at 13 set by Michael Schumacher during his dominant 2004 campaign.

Starting from pole, Seb has the best chance to do what he has done so often this season - scamper off into the distance, build enough of a gap so that the pursuing pack can't use their DRS to catch up, and then simply react to whatever everyone else does in the pitstop phase.

Vettel is the only man to win in Abu Dhabi since the race began in 2009 and he wants to make it a hat-trick so as to keep Schumacher's record in sight. Make no mistake, these things matter to Vettel - he is acutely aware of his place in history and has the tools at his disposal to make a very big mark in the F1 history books.

In the closing stages of qualifying it looked as though McLaren might spoil the party, with first Jenson Button and then Lewis Hamilton claiming pole, and Mark Webber unable to qualify any higher than fourth, but Vettel again stormed the field to qualify 0.141s ahead of the silver cars.

The McLaren duo will be hoping that the Red Bull, slow off the line on more than one occasion this season, will again be sluggish when the lights go out as it may present their best opportunity to get on terms. However, the figures of [4.9] (Hamilton) and [6.2] (Button) represent their likely chances of winning on a track that - even DRS-assisted - is not expected to be favourable for overtaking.

Looking elsewhere on the grid brings us to Mercedes, who have been out on their own this season - not fast enough to get on terms with the top three teams, but comfortably ahead of the pursuing midfield pack. Ignoring his retirements in Singapore and Korea, Schumacher has finished in the top six in every race since Belgium and at [2.5] is a good bet to do it again tomorrow. He starts eighth, one place behind teammate Nico Rosberg (also [2.5] for a top six finish), but Schumacher has gradually got on top of his young compatriot this season and if an accident or mechanical failure strikes the cars ahead of him on the grid, Michael has a great chance of continuing his points-scoring run.

Also worth looking at are the Toro Rosso duo, who have shown strong improvement lately after some rumoured assistance from parent team Red Bull in getting their blown diffuser working. Jaime Alguersuari starts 15th and is available at [1.98] for a points finish, while Sebastien Buemi is two places further up the grid and at [1.82]. Alguersuari has scored points in the last two races and is ahead in the standings, so I'd plump for him.

And for a little wildcard bet, pick Button ([5.6]) or Hamilton ([4.2]) for fastest lap. Vettel may well win the race, but he's only set fastest lap twice this year (in Valencia and last time out in India), so the stats are not on his side.

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