Darts / Jack Houghton / 07 October 2009 /

Our master bettor is trying his hand at darts betting this week and it's quite simple really, back Phil

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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Without that pesky bit of horseflesh making a big dog's dinner of things, the weekend just gone would have been hugely profitable for the Betting Challenge.

But hark no, Sea The Stars had to go and demonstrate his brilliance: costing us a score and seeing our profit dwindle to just £2.10 for the two days. No matter, a profit's a profit, and, no fear, I'm betting on darts this week, which will prove as good as government bonds in delivering guaranteed returns.

First a word on Sea The Stars' Arc performance. The horse deserves much credit for the victory. In discussions of equine greatness, we ratings bods can often overemphasise one-off stellar performances to the detriment of less transient qualities like versatility, flexibility and durability. Sea The Stars, with six Group One victories in six months, over a variety of distances, in often less than favourable conditions, has certainly proved he possesses those qualities in abundance.

However, it is notable that commentators have been most effervescent after what was, on paper at least, a mediocre performance in the context of his whole season report card. Compared to what he did at York and Sandown, the time was significantly below his best, and trying to handicap the race is difficult: with the muddling early pace of race principals allowing lesser horses to finish closer than expected.

There is, though, a truism in racing: a horse can only beat what's put in front of it. And, on this day, Sea The Stars overcame a number of racing hardships and still managed to dominate. Why, though, was the pace not more testing? Where was the horse kicking for home five out? And the one taking over three out? The fact remains that Sea The Stars has yet to be subjected to a break-neck-paced mile-and-a-half and, unless there was simply a whimpering understanding that second was the best any of them could hope for, it is of great discredit to opposing connections that they didn't ask him more searching questions on Sunday.

To me, the race was anticlimactic - the equivalent of Usain Bolt starting poorly before running through to comfortably nab Tyson Gay with five metres to go. The performance proves, unequivocally, who the daddy is; but tells us little of papa's true potential. With luck, we will find that out at the Breeders' Cup, or perhaps next year; but if the former looks unlikely, the latter - given Sea The Stars' worth as a stallion - is barely conceivable at all.

From one stallion to another. Phil Taylor will win this week's World Grand Prix. Despite predictions of imminent decline when beaten by Raymond Van Barneveld in the 2007 PDC World Championships, Taylor recovered his form and has been as dominant as ever in the last year - winning 92 per cent of his matches in 2009.

And, if anything, his recent performances show he might be even better now than at any time in his career - frequently topping 110 three-dart-averages in competitive matches.

Okay, I'm blagging here somewhat. A mate makes a decent living betting on darts and tells me that, on his ratings, Taylor should be a [1.3] shot. So, with nothing more convincing to mark my card, I'm having £20 on at [1.52].

Now the finalists are known, many of you will be eagerly awaiting my X-Factor views. You'll have to keep waiting though. I'm sure the Betting Challenge will venture that way at some point, but until I've seen more from the contenders, I'll be keeping stum. Ciao for now.

This week's bets:
£20 BACK of Phil Taylor at [1.52] in World Grand Prix winner market.

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