WBA Heavyweight Title Betting: David Haye v Nikolay Valuev

Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 02 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Will Haye emerge as no.1?

"Much of the interest though will surround the possibility of Haye dropping Valuev, indeed, for many this will be central to the fight. The Russian has never looked like being toppled but he has never faced a genuine punching threat like Haye."

Alex Steedman roots through the Haye-Valuev odds for the best bets. Plenty are predicting a win for the Hayemaker, but is that the most profitable approach to Saturday night's showdown?

David Haye v Nikolay Valuev is the first fight I can recall in a while where there is potentially some mileage for punters in almost every market. You can argue your point either way in most cases save maybe one; I wouldn't argue with anyone who had a dogmatically strong opinion that Haye is a certainty. Personally, I wouldn't put it that way but I can see the possibility of him winning this easily and at bigger than [1.5] it is such a temptation to indulge.

Put it this way, the fight is Haye's to lose - Valuev isn't likely to turn into a hard hitting ballet dancer anytime soon - and the pattern of it depends entirely on the Englishman's tactics.

Those expecting Haye to come out blasting for an early stoppage beware. Last month in 'Boxing Monthly' he likened Valuev to a big tree he'd have to chip away at, underlining a more patient but deliberate and intentioned approach. I imagine a similar pattern to the Hayemaker's brilliant away win over Jean Marc Mormeck where he went just beyond half way before delivering the knockout.

I wouldn't be stunned if Haye found Valuev so easy to hit that he finished things early, but given the champion's size and Haye's approach, it is most likely that Total Rounds will be 7th and above at [1.4]. In fact, that's probably a fair bet.

The knockdown specials market could be a whole lot of fun given Valuev's size, Haye's 90% KO power as well as the perceived vulnerability of his chin. Those backing Haye to hit the canvas will be hoping for a cavalier approach that either sees him walk onto a right hand or empties the tank after halfway. But Valuev is not a sharp, powerful puncher; each of his last five fights has gone to the cards - only fringe and ageing contenders have been stopped. The only way I can see him securing a KO is if Haye tires dramatically in the last four rounds (R7-9 = [19.0] and R10-12 = [15.0]).

Much of the interest though will surround the possibility of Haye dropping Valuev, indeed, for many this will be central to the fight. The Russian has never looked like being toppled but he has never faced a genuine punching threat like Haye. All but one of the Hayemaker's victims have gone for an early bath and the glaring omission was a decision win three years ago when Haye carried survivalist Ismail Abdoul as if to prove a point about his own questioned stamina.

Valuev will almost certainly be walking Haye down, more so given Haye's build up comments about the Russian being too ugly and hairy to be World Champion. So it will be to the Brit's advantage to draw lead jabs and counter accordingly; a pattern that is likely and tactics which would serve Haye well. If that happens, there will be ample opportunities for Haye to land explosive counter punches against the most pedestrian opponent he has ever faced. I just don't see much upside in recommending a Valuev knockdown at around [2.5] (I'd rather take a smaller stake punt on a group of rounds KO). That said, I wouldn't be cueing up to lay the same eventuality.

Perhaps the most debated market of all to weigh up is how the fight will be won. Valuev usually wins on points against credible opponents but I can't see him out-boxing Haye. And though the possibility of a late knockout against a tiring Haye isn't without reason, it is reliant on a number of factors, mainly a reckless and tactical malfunction on Haye's part. More likely, the question is can Haye become the first to knock out 'The Russian Giant.'

Let us say that Haye hopes to win by KO even if privately he might wonder if it is possible. So you know he will be trying given what are likely to be enough opportunities to do so. And you just know that after all he's said about the relative timidity of Wladimir Klitschko, a statement early finish would be high on the list of desirables for Haye. However, he's already said publicly that he expects the fight to go beyond half way and I can see a pattern where by Haye asks enough questions and enjoys so much success that he'll make a concerted effort through rounds 7-9. If by then the KO seems too much of a struggle, I'm sure he'll conserve energy down the stretch and make sure of the win.

I'm sure Haye will win this fight; I'm just not certain how he will do it. Either way, it's going to be an awful lot of fun finding out.

Recommended Bets (0-10 pts staking strategy)

Haye to win - [1.7] - 8pts win
Total rounds 7-12 - 1.4 or better - 6pts win
Haye to win between rounds 7-9 - 10.5 - 1pt win