The Betfair Contrarian: Why Nikolai Valuev will beat David Haye

Boxing Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 03 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Even if Haye becomes the first man to knock Valuev out, it will take him a lot longer than his recent victories have done."

The bigger they come the harder they fall? Perhaps, but when they're used to going the distance, it's difficult to make them fall - the Betfair Contrarian explains why the Russian giant will see off his British challenger...

A quick look at the betting instantly demolishes all the pre-fight David v Goliath fol-de-rol, as while Nikolai Valuev is significantly the bigger of the two, David Haye is a [1.71] favourite to make a mockery of Valuev's 22cm height advantage. However, the Contrarian feels that there's too much patriotic punting going on here and doesn't buy the notion that the Russian Giant is some kind of bumbling circus act. Here's why you should be backing the surprise outsider at [2.46].

Haye only ever wins by knockout

All but one of David Haye's 22 career victories have been by knockout. Generally, of course, that would be seen as a huge positive. Not against Valuev, however. The Russian has never been knocked out. In fact, his record is so exemplary that the only loss he has suffered in his 52-fight career (to Ruslan Chagaev in 2007) split the judges.

Which means he almost never goes the distance...

Even if Haye were to make history by becoming the first man ever to knock Valuev out, it would almost certainly take him a lot longer than the majority of his recent victories have done. Seventeen of his 23 bouts have lasted four rounds or fewer and he has only once ever gone beyond nine. So despite the Russian being seven years Haye's senior, the major stamina doubts will surround the Londoner. Valuev may now be 36, but he regularly goes the distance and consistently gets results, more so at this stage in his career than ever before.

Valuev doesn't need to knock Haye out

As touched upon above, Valuev isn't finding it harder with each passing fight to keep his energy levels up in the closing stages. If anything, the experience that going the distance so regularly has given him makes him an even bigger threat. Eight of the Russian's last 10 bouts have gone 11 rounds or more. Each of the last five have gone to the judges and he has won the most recent four.

Which hands him a psychological edge....

He knows how to strategise for a long fight and impress the judges, something Haye never usually has to worry about because his focus is on inflicting damage straight away to swat lesser opponents aside. It gives Valuev a huge psychological boost knowing that he can bide his time, whereas Haye will be desperate to end things quickly. The longer it lasts, the more wary he may become of the giant's habit of winning on points, which may leave him more desperate and prone to making mistakes. Therefore, the [4.8] available on Valuev winning by decision is impossible to ignore.

New coach Alexander Zimin may play a key role...

Zimin came on board after the Chagaev defeat and claims to have given the movement to go with his size. He's slimmer, fitter, quicker, with faster punching and a genuine jab, he says.
While Zimin may be talking up his client, Haye is stepping into the unknown
Not only has Haye only ever fought a couple of minutes in the heavyweight class, when he beat Tomasz Bonin by a knockout in the first round in April 2007, but hes also never fought anyone taller than 6 4 (the less than formidable Enzo Macarinelli).

The crowd should be with the Russian

Haye may also be disadvantaged by fighting in Germany. He's only fought outside the UK three times before and only once in a 12-rounder. In comparison, Valuev has done battle there 18 times before, more in fact than in his native Russia and has even triumphed in Nuremberg before.