Super Six Series: Odds say Abraham but hold on to your money for one more round

Boxing Betting / Richard Douglas / 22 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Carl Froch is third favourite to win the Super Six

"The Super Six has a World Cup feel to it. In the group stage each fighter has three bouts. You score two points for a win by decision and three for knockout. The top four go into semi-finals and then a final will determine the outright winner."

The Super Six series is a fantastic innovation for boxing - a genuine meritocracy - but it's an unpredictable beast. Observe one more round before piling in, suggests Richard Douglas

For the good of boxing, the Super Six must be successful

The sport has been buried under a lexicon of titles for far too long. Promoters seem to spend the majority of their time finding credible opponents to lose to their champions while the most talented pugilists merely glare and posture at each other then map out a safety-first route to money rather than glory.

If only you could create a tournament where the best fought the best. It would take some time (and certainly some negotiating) but the eventual champion would be credible and, who knows, even pure.

And there's a word barely ever mentioned in the square ring.

Showtime, the US TV network, and Sauerland, the German boxing promoters, are attempting this gargantuan task.

They signed up the best half-dozen super-middleweight, with the possible exception of IBF champions Lucian Bute, for an ambitious two-year project.

The tournament has a World Cup feel to it. In the group stage each fighter has three bouts. You score two points for a win by decision and three for knockout. The top four go into semi-finals and then a final will determine the outright winner.

We have only had one round of fights so far. The quality, drama and interest has been high. But already cracks are appearing.

On October 17, favourite Arthur Abraham KO'd Jermain Taylor ([32.0]) with just six seconds remaining in the bout. The Armenian was fighting in Germany, his adopted home, and was well ahead on points anyway.

Abraham ([2.62]) is a puzzle in many ways. With a 31-0 record his odds are correct but his cautious style and notoriously slow start would seem to play into the hands of certain opponents on show. Yet he finds a way to win with something to spare.

Still there is a feeling that, like many German-based fighters, he won't travel well. And he must do that to win this event.

Taylor had the boxing world in the palm of his hand when he beat Bernard Hopkins in 2005. However Kelly Pavlik battered him twice then Carl Froch, in a pre-tournament fight, and Abraham both stopped him in the final round. He was jettisoned by his management "for his own good" and has since dropped out of the tournament. In February, Allan Green and Sakio Bika will box off to take his place.

Abraham's next fight is against Andre Dirrell ([17.5]) in California in March. The American was edged out by Froch ([4.4]) via a split decision in Nottingham on that same October 17 date but many thought only home advantage pulled the Englishman through. Dirrell's stock rose as a result but his tournament has come slightly too early for him. If, as expected, he loses his next bout he is as good as out.

Froch, on the other hand, is at a crossroads. His next fight sees him go to Copenhagen to face Mikkel Kessler ([6.2]). The early money suggested the overall winner would be the Dane or Abrahams. However Kessler was so badly shocked by Andre Ward in the opening bout he may be spent-goods already. An accidental headbutt meant they went to scorecards one round early that night. It may have prevented Kessler being knocked out.

But then Froch did not cover himself in glory against Dirrell. And, in his previous bout, only a last-round flurry stopped Taylor when he was trailing on the scorecards and had been floored for the first time in his career in Round Three. Froch is brave, heavy-handed with a renowned chin but home advantage means so much in boxing and a defeat would leave him going to Germany to face Abraham in need of a win.

Understandably, Ward's odds have shortened dramatically to [2.92] since he shocked Kessler. He has also profited from Taylor's departure and is left facing the winner of Green/Bika then Dirrell. He should make the semi-finals but question marks remain over his power and his experience.

To be honest, so much changed on (or since) the first round that this may be a market to observe for now. At the moment the brain says Abraham while the heart is holding out for Froch.

But, in boxing, one punch can always change everything. Keep your money in your pocket for at least one more round of fights.