Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 28 November 2011 /

Antonio Magarito and Miguel Cotto served up a classic two years ago but the result was controversial with Margarito caught with hardened wraps and that makes this one serious grudge match, says Alex Steedman

If perceived wisdom as well as considered morality is to prevail this weekend, Miguel Cotto will exact prolonged and painful revenge upon nemesis Antonio Margarito. But it doesn't always work out the way 'it should' and I have a sneaking feeling that the dark force might be too strong once again.

The conventional theory is that because Margarito ([3.0] to win) was caught with hardened wraps before his 2009 fight with Shane Mosley and clinically exposed during the fight itself, he must have successfully used the same horrible trick when beating up Cotto ([1.54]) six months previously.

Certainly the manner in which Cotto capitulated late on under relentless Margarito pressure gives seeming base to the argument. Every Margarito punch appeared to claw at Cotto's soul; it really was painful to watch, more so having witnessed the apparent ease with which Cotto handled Margarito through the early stages of the fight. Cotto believes he was battered by hidden weapons, most people agree and until recently I was in the same boat.

I still think that Margarito 'probably' cheated (and criminally) against Cotto but I think the psychology between them and inside their respective heads goes far deeper than that. Cotto must believe that Margarito can't hurt him like he did before in this a 'clean' fight but what happens when he does or if he can? How much damage will that do in the mind of a fighter who has convinced himself of a cause and a reason for winning?

Add the fuel of redemption for Margarito or at least the feint possibility of legitimising previous performances with victory and you have a heady dose of incentive all round. Margarito normally fights with a purpose but his approach to this fight is likely to border on maniacal. He might just be unstoppable.

Still, that's only talk. The reality is Margarito has just a tune up win on the ledger against two beatings in the three years since he faced Cotto. Mosley stopped him in nine before Manny Pacquiao absolutely marmalised him last November and such was the hammering the Filipino dished out Margarito required extensive surgery in and around his right eye. It almost retired him and threatened to derail this fight until a late decision by the New York Athletic Commission saved the day.

It is not unreasonable to question whether Margarito is capable of enforcing his physical will on this fight and doing what he does best. Pacquiao might just have ruined Margarito for good, perhaps he should have retired after all.

Meanwhile Cotto has appeared rejuvenated winning four of five since losing to Margarito. Only Pac Man has bettered the Puerto Rican in the intervening three years and Cotto answered that by moving up to light middle to become a three weight world champion.

Personally I don't think Yuri Foreman and world champion belong in the same sentence while as awkward as Ricardo Mayorga is, he's never been banging on the pound-for-pound list. So that form is questionable but in fairness Cotto has looked revitalised as a boxer under legendary Emmanuel Steward. That Steward has been jettisoned for this fight is a mystery and potentially a massive negative. Had he been in the corner I would have fancied Cotto to craft his way to victory.

This is a fight surrounded by questions and open to varied interpretation. I've always had a soft spot for Cotto and I backed him to beat Margarito last time but the truth is he's never been the best 12 round fighter. He suffered the same late fight melt down against Pacquiao that beset him against Margarito previously and he struggled past the one-paced Joshua Clottey in between.

The truth is we don't really know where either Cotto or Margarito are at right now, both are laced with negatives. But I do believe that if Margarito's body will allow it, he has the will, physical strength and power to put doubt in Cotto's mind and upstairs is where this fight will be won and lost, particularly for Cotto. And that for me is the punting crux. Cotto believes he was beaten by a fighter with 'loaded' gloves and so he is convinced that not only will he come through but he is convinced he can't be hurt like before. The question is, what or who do you believe?

Recommended Bet
Margarito to win 1pt @ [3.0]

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