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Mayweather to win on points is the best bet going

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The BBC's David Croft tells us why things could turn ugly when Hatton faces "Pretty Boy"

Five years ago I sat at ringside watching Ricky Hatton demolish Ordinary Joe Hutchinson in 4 rounds, covering The Hitman for the first time for BBC 5 Live. It was also the first time I'd seen him box in the flesh and I have to admit to wincing once or twice as the then WBU champion rained in the body shots at his hapless opponent. Three years later I arranged an interview with him for Sport on 5 at his house on the outskirts of Manchester, to this day one of the most pleasurable day's work I've experienced. I'd met Ricky before but his warmth and hospitality, honesty and family loyalty that day were a credit to one of the nicest guys you'd ever wish to meet. He's also the only sportsman that's invited me round for an interview and answered the door with the words 'Eh up, fancy a brew'.

A few weeks later he beat Kosta Tzsyu and so continued his epic rise. This Saturday, after finishing my duties at ringside for Amir Khan v Graham Earl, I'll be pressing the Ramada Hotel in Bolton to show Ricky's fight against Floyd Mayweather, a fight that I desperately hope he wins. It's a fight that would cement his place among some of British boxing's all-time greats, a fight he deserves to win, if only to prove that nice guys can come first from time to time. But is it a fight that I can say with any great confidence that he will win?

The answer to that has to be 'no' - and a recent article on the BBC Sport boxing website featuring 6 of Britain's current world champions had them split right down the middle as to the outcome. As Joe Calzaghe puts it, 'my heart says Ricky, my head says Floyd'.

To me, Floyd Mayweather is up there with the very best of the best and has taken apart fighters who, like Ricky, will come at him and try and swarm him early on. Here was a man who became a mauler in the 6 round demolition or Arturo Gatti, but yet had the mind of a subtle tactician to dispose of Carlos Baldimir on points. Mayweather can be all things to all men, a horse for any course if you like, and remember he's stepped in with the best and emerged unscathed while Ricky spent far too long in the wilderness of the WBU. Having said that any man who forces Kosta Tzsyu to remain on his stool has to be respected, his punching power is ferocious and he's as brave as brave can be.

I don't think it will be a classic fight and if it isn't that should suit Mayweather, indicating that his tactics are winning through, and in the back of my mind I still wonder whether the step up to welterweight really suits Ricky. It's not like his points win over Luis Collazo was impressive now.

So from a punter's point of view what's a good bet to help you stay awake in the early hours? I'm told by the way that the fight won't be before 4am UK time so make sure there's a big pot of coffee on the go. Betfair offer [1.62] on Mayweather, [2.84] on Ricky for the outright win, go ahead if you think you've spotted a winner, but for value for the undecided like myself, turn to the round by round market. For Ricky to win I think he has to come out flying and dominate from the start, hurting Mayweather from the off. So if you fancy Ricky then in the round betting market on Betfair you can back The Hitman at [48.0] to win in round 4 and [55.0] to win in round 5. So if Hatton starts well, it might be wise get on early and then trade out.

For me a points win for Floyd Mayweather, if he is to win, seems likely, you can back that on Betfair at [2.38]. Interestingly you can also back Pretty Boy at [65.0] to win in the 10th. After that, he may have a points decision in the back of his mind, but if Ricky is tiring then he could be vulnerable by then

One thing I think is for sure, by the time most of the UK wakes up on Sunday, one of these boxers will have a loss against his record, the draw can be laid at [29.0] and laid with confidence. I just don't think it will happen simply because it makes no sense to have a re-match without the opportunity for revenge. And that revenge I think might have to be Ricky's, with a points defeat for The Hitman this time around.