Boxing Betting / David Croft / 07 November 2009 / Leave a comment

David Haye is the best thing to happen to heavyweight boxing in a long, long time and tonight is his moment. David Croft explains why he believes the Brit can knock-out Nikolai Valuev.

"Betfair bettors have ‘The Haymaker’ down as a the slight [1.95] favourite as opposed to [2.1] for the champion... On this occasion it might just pay to back the Brit."

I was flying to China this week to cover the Race of Champions, a little end of season race off for the top F1 drivers in the Olympic Stadium. Not that that has anything to do with boxing but on the flight I watched a film starring Nikolai Valuev. Seems the beast from the east, or the Russian Giant as he prefers to be called is something of a budding actor.

Having watched a bit of Stonehead, in which Valuev plays an ex-boxer who loses his memory. I can confirm that the WBA heavyweight champion can play moody and menacing in the way that Roger Moore portrayed surprise and delight. One raised eyebrow is all it takes.

Tonight though in Nuremberg, Valuev may need a little more movement if he is to hang to his belt as he squares up to the best thing to happen to heavyweight boxing in a long, long time.

For the sake of the future of world title heavyweight boxing, let's all hope and pray that Haye hasn't bitten off more than he can chew. Because should he win, we might just see a little razzmatazz come back to the big boys.

I see that Betfair customers have 'The Haymaker' down as a the slight [1.95] favourite as opposed to [2.1] for the champion. Traditionally, British punters back British boxers and I'm sure there are plenty out there who are still counting their losses after believing that Ricky Hatton had a chance against Manny Pacquiao. But do you know what, on this occasion it might just pay to back the Brit.

Haye may be giving away seven stone in weight and nine inches in height to the lumbering Russian but he posses a weapon that Valuev has never had in the ring - speed. It's the quickness of movement and the speed of his combinations that will prove Haye's main threat. Providing of course that he can get close enough. Valuev should be keeping the challenger at bay with a solid jab, not allowing Haye to come and fight at close range.

But I hear from Valuev's manager Kale Sauerland that the champ has been riled by some of Haye's antics in the build up to the fight. He's got a bit worked up at some of the taunts and name calling. Which is where Haye is a smart boxer. He winds people up, gets them talking about revenge, subtly, and sometimes not so subtly, he messes with opponents' heads. That is where he takes opponents out of their comfort zone and maybe tonight he'll do that to Valuev and persuade the Russian to come and fight, not hide behind the jab. Should he avoid the big punches that may follow and keep on moving, then I take Haye to win.

I don't expect a long fight and but if you do think it will go the distance then take Valuev at [4.7] to win by a decision. Home town results in Germany are as frequent as the burps that accompany a good Bratwurst. I know Valuev has never been put down but I honestly think Haye has the speed to land enough punches and become the first. I like the price of [12.0] for Haye to beat a tiring champ in rounds 7-9. You can take the [3.05] on Valuev to get knocked down as well, covering yourself should he get up.

The Betfair Contrarian thinks otherwise. He claims that Haye will run out of puff and hat the champion's chin will stand the test and not taste the canvas. I disagree.

The Contrarian needs to hark back 12 months to when Haye demolished Monty Barrette at heavyweight level and remember how Barrette was left dazed and confused by the barrage of punches that reigned down on him. Tonight Haye may not land as many of those punches but he will throw them and I honestly expect Valuev to be left a little stunned. He hasn't fought a fighter with Haye's speed before. Remember that.

In his excellent column on this site, Alex Steedman makes mention of the fact that the Russian has never faced a genuine punching threat like Haye and I agree.

Prepare for an historic evening gentleman and let's make Haye!

Tags: Alex Steedman, Betting odds, Boxing betting odds, boxing betting tips, David Croft, David Haye v Nikolai Valuev, THe Betfair Contrarian