Boxing betting: Hatton as underdog could benefit punters in the Mayweather mega clash

Boxing Betting / Dan Fitch / 21 November 2007 / 2 Comments

The Hitman looks too long in the betting for WBC Welterweight title showdown...

On December 8th Manchester's Ricky Hatton takes on Floyd Mayweather Jr, in what promises to be the boxing event of the year. The fight is being sold under the moniker of 'Undefeated'. Come the day of reckoning, one of these great champions will lose that tag. Unless it's a draw. In which case, sometime next summer, I'll be writing about 'Undefeated II'.

The fight promises to be a fascinating mix of styles. Mayweather boasts impeccable boxing skills and blisteringly fast hand speed. Hatton is the relentless aggressor, always moving forward and trying to get inside to mix it up. It evokes the clash between Sugar Ray Leonard and Roberto Duran, but there is sure to be a crucial difference. Hatton will certainly not be shouting out: "No mas".

The Hitman will be stepping out of his comfort zone of Light-Welterweight, as he challenges for Mayweather's WBC Welterweight title. Hatton has fought at Welterweight only once before, winning the WBA title from Luis Collazo. He clearly struggled with the step up and was repeatedly caught as he lunged in. Overall, he proved aggressive enough to take the decision, though many onlookers thought Hatton had lost the fight.

However, it should be taken into account that Collazo was a southpaw. Hatton has always struggled against this stance and indeed, was knocked down by the southpaw Eamonn Magee, before coming back to take the victory. Another factor is that Mayweather started out as a Super Featherweight, before moving up the divisions. Whilst some then might argue that both fighters will be out of their natural weight range, I still tend to think that Mayweather is far more natural at this division. Whilst only an inch taller than Hatton, Mayweather boasts a far greater reach.

This will be Hatton's great challenge - to defy the long arms and quickness of Mayweather, to get himself inside and able to fire off the type of body shot that saw him floor Jose Luis Castillo. Hatton will struggle against Mayweather in the middle of the ring and needs to force him against the ropes. Oscar de la Hoya enjoyed success with this tactic, though obviously he is a much bigger man than Hatton.

The self proclaimed 'Pretty Boy' has recently appeared on Dancing With The Stars, the US version of Strictly Come Dancing. Personally I'd have thought that sparring and bag work were better preparation for a fight of this magnitude rather than pratting around on the dance floor, but Mayweather has never struggled with stamina and should come in fit.

It will be interesting to see if Mayweather takes the dancing into the ring against Hatton. If he gets on his toes and runs away from Hatton, he faces the risk of getting caught on the ropes and the judges will be siding with Hatton for taking the initiative. Yet he would be playing into Hatton's hands by standing still in the middle of the ring and would be very vulnerable, should Ricky circumnavigate the quick jabs and find his range.

Mayweather is [1.55] to back, with Hatton [3.05] and the draw [29]. I think that these prices should be closer together, albeit with Mayweather still as favourite. In-play betting will be available and this could be a good fight for trading, with boxing markets often being very volatile. In the method of victory market, Mayweather on points, is favourite at [2.32], with Hatton by KO, TKO or disqualification a good price at [6.6].

Punters clearly see this fight going long, with 7th round and above, the heavy favourite in the total rounds market at [1.17], over a price of [5.1] for 1-6 rounds. Round betting adds a bit of excitement to any fight, though it's something of a lottery. The smallest price you'll find for either fighter to take a knockout in any round is around the 50 mark, which is the sort of price that could even see Mancunians celebrating a Mayweather win.

An outside bet? If you figure on a Hatton victory, [5.5] for BBC Sports Personality of the Year is better value than the win market. Especially, as this press conference proves, he actually has a personality.

Comments (2)

1. Marc L | 21 November 2007

   I can't wait for this fight - this is what Boxing is all about! 2 greats, both undefeated going out to prove who is best! I wish thing kind of thing happened more often.

   As for who to back, it's a real tough one! My heart says Ricky, but my head is pulling towards the pretty boy. I will probably just back Ricky for the better odds.. but hey it's a tough call!

   Bring it home Hitman!

2. tomo | 07 December 2007

   i cant wait to see pretty boys smug head when he s face down on the cavas c mon hattan