Boxing Betting: Redemption night for Khan who simply must deliver

Boxing Betting / David Croft / 05 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Amir Khan has reached a tipping point in his career. The Bolton born puncher must win his fight with Oisin Fagan on Saturday night and as David Croft explains, a new trainer and mentality should give him a good chance of getting his career back on track.

I've got to tell you, he's got a beautiful jab, beautiful. He's got a better jab than Oscar De La Hoya"

The words of trainer Freddie Roach on the eve of the biggest night of his fighter's career. But which fighter? Yes, I thought he was talking about Manny Pacquiao as well, but it turns out that Freddie has seen something in his new fighter that might just hold the key to any success from here on in.

Roach, the man who Khan could have done with in his corner 19 fights ago has identified not only where the British boxer has been going wrong in his pro career so far, but has sought a way to put things right. He believes that the key to turning Amir from a contender into a champion is to start using that jab more, boxing behind it and helping to protect a chin that let's face it we all knew was venerable long before Breidis Prescott made contact in the first round in Manchester back in September.

Good stuff, but has Amir the patience to put this plan into practice? After watching the majority of his fights since turning professional back in the summer of 2005 it's become abundantly clear that here is a boxer who doesn't want to hang around. Blessed with a brilliant speed of thought and punch Khan has demolished his opponents with a flurry of combinations right from the very first bell, which of course he can do against the likes of Daniel Thorpe and Ryan Barrett. But when you start to move up in class it's not always possible to fight that way, something good boxers learn quickly and adapt too. The trouble with Amir is that we're still asking questions as to whether he's adapted and listened.

What Roach is asking his fighter to do on Saturday is to stop lunging in with a big right hand, exposing that suspect chin. He wants the boy from Bolton to use the jab and bide his time, waiting for the moment when Oisin Fagan is off balance and ready to be caught. Sounds like a simple plan and I'm looking forward to seeing the evidence because make no mistake this is a fight of huge importance. As Nicky Piper put it on the Sky Sports preview show "The question here is not just whether Amir can recover physically from the knock down against Prescott, but whether he can recover mentally too". More often than not, those mental scars can take far longer to heal, but maybe, just maybe that stoppage inside the first minute might have knocked some sense into Amir. He says he's learnt his lesson and after victory in London on Saturday he wants to fight Prescott again to prove that he is the better man.

It's clear that Khan has enjoyed working with Roach and the benefits that come with it, such as sparring and training with the best pound for pound boxer on the planet, Manny Pacquiao. Roach has taken the 21 year old out of the comfort zone of his family surroundings and home environment, brought him to Las Vegas and drilled into him Patience, Patience, and Patience. I'm sure Amir will have that word ringing in his ears when he climbs into the ring, once he's there though he won't have Roach to rely on should he need a helping hand, or more importantly, words of advice.

Roach will be in the Pacquiao's corner; Khan will have Dean Powell with him once again, a good man but not in Roach's league. Nor will Gary Stretch be in the corner either, a visa problem stopped the ex British junior-middleweight champion coming over and taking charge on the night. This worries me a little and for punters it has to be taken into consideration. Is this the new Amir or will he slip into his old ways, and if he does can Dean Powell help him slip out of them?

Fagan, as you'd expected, says he's coming to win and that Team Khan have overlooked him and his ability. Putting his career as a future political journalist on hold, the Dubliner is promising a hard fight and says he revels in the role of underdog. He may well do but Khan on his day has the potential to be a class fighter and if he can't dispose of Fagan in style than he may find his day has come and gone.

Personally I think Khan will win and expect him to finish the fight off in the 3rd round, priced at [7.6] with Betfair. But there's no getting away from the fact that his chin is suspect if caught so I might just have a little punt on Fagan in round 4 at [65] or to win by knockout at [9] with Khan priced at a far too short [1.23] to do the same.