Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 08 November 2009 / Leave a comment

After charting the recent progress of the two fighters in a separate column , Alex Steedman explains how you can find the value in the big fight between Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto.

"Pacquiao to score a knockdown in the specials market or to win by KO will be popular in many quarters. But Cotto is not easily budged."

Speed often outs in this sport but it could be that size, punch or even boxing smarts triumphs for Miguel Cotto this weekend.

The match odds are a fair reflection of current 'form' as much as they are a nod to boxing fashion. Had this fight taken place two years ago, Cotto would have been a stronger favourite to win than Manny Pacquiao is at around [1.5]. A call to arms to grab the [3.25] this is not but it's worth remembering that before his crushing loss to Margarito, there was a widespread view that Cotto was 'the man' to threaten then No1 Floyd Mayweather.

Perspective on price is important here.

There is no doubt Cotto is a rhythm fighter, he certainly likes to box at his own tempo and Pacquiao is a harasser. But Cotto has excellent technique as well as timing; he floored Joshua Clottey in the first round of their fight with a jab. It's that eye for the appropriate punch which gives him a shot whether on the counter or on the front foot. I do think he has a live chance either way.

The total rounds market might be influenced by Pacquiao's demolition of Ricky Hatton but I would be surprised if Cotto went the same way. He invites punches onto his guard more than he used to but it's still a decent defence. And I still believe that Pac-man isn't as lethal as his recent record suggests.

His record indicates that against thinking fighters like Barrera, Marquez and now Cotto, Pacquiao goes some rounds. It's not inconceivable that Manny might get iced himself but more likely it will go 7-12 rounds.

Given Pac-man has gobbled up his last three opponents and looked devastating doing so, there will be clamour for the spectacular. Pacquiao to score a knockdown in the specials market or indeed to win by KO will be popular in many quarters. But Cotto is not easily budged.

Since moving up to 147lbs, the Puerto Rican star has looked nothing but solid until that now questionable defeat to Margarito. If the gloves were 'loaded' then, that would explain a lot. I wouldn't be clamouring to take a short price about Cotto hitting the deck. Ironically, if he can lay enough glove on Pacquiao, the chances are Cotto can hurt him.

And therein lies the fight conundrum and its likely pattern; can Cotto get close enough or will Pacquiao be simply too slick and frustrate him? Either way, I think the fight goes right down the stretch and at the prices, odds-against for a 12 round fight is just the call.

Though rarely out-boxed, Cotto can be hustled. Solid pressure fighters like Margarito and Clottey troubled him most, so Pacquiao's insistent raids may take their toll in the later rounds - particularly if shedding the extra catch-weight 2lbs counts against the bigger man. In that respect, the 10-12 group rounds for Pac-man makes some appeal at a collective 10/1 although I still think that of all the Pacquiao possibilities, a decision win at around [4.0] looks the best value.

What Cotto does well is cut down the ring space and although he appears somewhat robotic, he has dealt with speedsters like Paulie Malignaggi and Zab Judah in the past. Quite how this fight is for Cotto's WBO Welterweight Title is beyond me, given it's at 145 and not 147lbs. But that could be additional fuel to his fire. Cotto has the size, punch and technique to get this job done. But will he?

The percentage call is that Paquiao wins by decision (or maybe even late stoppage) but I can't get it out of my head that this talented little guy was scrapping 17lb lighter opponents till recently. Diaz, De La Hoya and Hatton couldn't ask the appropriate questions of Pacquiao through a sequence of failings. But Cotto can. Problem is, that would gatecrash the forecast fight that everyone has been talking about, namely Pacquiao v Mayweather!

Recommended Bet:

Cotto 1pt win @ [3.25]

Tags: Alex Steedman, Boxing Betting, Boxing Betting Tips, Boxing Odds, Manny Pacquiao v Miguel Cotto