Boxing Betting / Ralph Ellis / 23 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Carl Froch puts his belt on the line for the first time on Saturday night but his opponent will be fighting for his career, says Ralph Ellis.

Sport loves it's philosophical moments, and it was Wolves manager Mick McCarthy who came up this year with a pearl of wisdom before his team were due to play Charlton. His lot were top, the other side were bottom, and everybody thought it would be an easy win. "Let me tell you," he said in his gruff Yorkshire tone, "about a dog chasing a rabbit. The dog fancies a bit of snap, the rabbit fancies staying alive. Who will run harder?"

It's a thought that might well apply to Carl Froch's first defence of his WBC world super middleweight title at the MCM Grand Casino in Foxwoods on Saturday night. After starting his professional career late Froch has worked his way steadily to the top and this fight is the one that could really launch his name into the big lights. But for opponent Jermain Taylor it's the moment when defeat could spell the end of his career.

While the other papers have concentrated on the thoughts of Nottingham star Froch this morning, the Daily Star's Kevin Francis has been talking to Taylor's promoter Lou DiBella about exactly what's at stake for the American.

And DiBella is warning: "If Jermain lost badly I don't think he'd continue. That's my own personal guess. If he can't beat Carl I think he's going to take it as a real sign that it's time to leave. It's certainly a tough fight to call."

That closeness is reflected in the betting, with Taylor a marginal favourite at [2.0] while Froch is [2.02]. There's an element of patriotism in Betfair's market because the American bookmakers all make Taylor clear favourite, and believe that the former undisputed middleweight champ can become a two-weight world title holder.

In the Method of Victory market it's Taylor by a decision that's favourite. But as Froch himself points out today, the American boxer may be a year younger than him but he has a stamina issue.

"Against Kelly Pavlik, Taylor went for the finish and he seemed to blow a gasket and tire himself out," says Froch. "He definitely has a stamina issue and when you are struggling for air it is hard work in that ring. I've been there myself when I boxed as an amateur and wasn't training for fights. No, I run and train and if I stand in front of him for 12 rounds like I did with Jean Pascal when I won the WBC title then Taylor won't be able to take it."

That suggests that if Taylor's hunger to keep his career going does make him as determined as Mick McCarthy's rabbit, then he'll win by a knockdown. What he won't be able to do is grind out a 12 rounder - even with the traditional advantage of being an American fighting in America - and that makes the [2.64] for a Taylor points victory very definitely one to lay.

Five things you might not know about Carl Froch

1. Born in Nottingham in 1977, his surname comes from his Polish Grandfather

2. He started boxing at nine and had his first schoolboy bout as an 11-year-old, going on to win two ABA Middleweight titles

3. After being rejected in trials to play for Nottingham Forest he nearly joined the Royal Marines but chose instead to stay home to develop his amateur career

4. He's kept a diary logging every training run time and every sparring session since he turned pro in 2002

5. He's invested his winnings in a string of buy-to-let properties and his mates know him as "Rigsby"