Boxing Betting: Hatton gets close to Mayweather

Boxing Betting / Editor / 30 November 2007 / Leave a Comment

The biggest bet of his boxing career? As Ricky Hatton prepares for his Vegas showdown with Floyd Mayweather on the 8th of December, Alex Steedman runs through the odds.

A clash of personalities as much as much styles, Hatton v Mayweather is a promoter's dream and fight fans' perfect match up. Boxer against pressure fighter, American braggadocio or homespun hero - take your side, pick your man. On Saturday night at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, two very different worlds collide.

Not such a long way from the Hattersley estate in Manchester comes homeboy hero Hatton, the spiteful thresher, debilitating body puncher and weakener of men, the 'English Mexican' who gnaws away at your very soul, inciting self doubt with every calculated assault.

Opposite him, in almost every way, is Floyd Mayweather Jnr. The 'King of Bling' is fast of hand, fleet of foot and has a lip to match both. Yet for all his brash, Mayweather sits deservedly atop boxing's mystical pound-for-pound list. He is quality in motion with a work ethic to deliver on his talent.

But tortoise and the hare this is not.

Let's acknowledge from the outset that across the water, Mayweather is a strong favourite, closer to [1.3] on the Vegas line than the near [1.6] on Betfair. With the overwhelming view stateside that little Floyd will win, and some in the trade even suggesting a mismatch, that 4-7 might seem pretty generous. Indeed, there is the possibility that five weight world champion Mayweather will simply be too good for Hatton but I'll argue otherwise. The much used maxim about styles making and deciding fights was never truer than here.

The first question to ask is how will the fight be fought and what does each fighter have to do to win.

Hatton has to get close, there's no way he can win by trying to outbox Mayweather from the centre of the ring. Get close - apply that trademark, educated pressure. He has the speed and footwork to do that. Mayweather's style will also help in this regard as he's not renowned as a front foot fighter. He did against Sharmba Mitchell and Arturo Gatti in 2005 but both were on the slide and have won 2 out of 5 between them since. Recent wins over Carlos Baldomir and Oscar De La Hoya were more to type, where Mayweather boxed and moved with frequent retreats to the ropes for a lesson in defence. Baldomir followed Mayweather around like a slower, younger brother unsure of his steps while De La Hoya (who incidentally, tips a Hatton win) had Mayweather in all sorts of bother until he ran out of gas. Hatton won't be stopping, the attacks will be relentless but thoughtful and more aggressive.

Meanwhile, Mayweather will be poised in the teeth of the storm, spying gaps to punish Hatton on the way in and when he's under attack on the ropes. And Hatton can be hit. He was dropped by the canny, counter-punching Southpaw Eamonn Magee during an opening round assault when they met in 2002, the only time the Hitman has been on the canvas. But he adapted his angles and rushes thereafter to win comfortably. And remember - Hatton shipped several thunderous right hands from the murderous puncher Kostya Tszyu when he won the IBF title 2 years ago. Mayweather punches with enough precision and power to warrant respect and he hurt the light middleweight De La Hoya with an uppercut in their fight but he's no Kostya Tszyu. Hatton walked through walls that night to break the great Russian Aussie's spirit and I sense he's in the same frame of mind again.

Some make beef about Hatton's effectiveness as a welterweight (147lbs) having campaigned almost entirely as a light-welter (140lbs), pointing to his points win struggle with Luis Collazo last May. Bear in mind Hatton faced a change of opponent, up in weight and with just 6 weeks notice. And the fight came at a time when he was embroiled in a litigious conflict with former promoter Frank Warren. In the circumstances he did ok. In fact, while Mayweather walks around the house at 147, Hatton regularly comes into the ring on fight night around 152. He'll almost certainly be the bigger man.

One other angle to consider is how the fight will be handled by the appointed officials. The referee is Joe 'I'm firm but I'm fair' Cortez. He handled Hatton's last fight against Jose Luis Castillo and seemed content to let Hatton's swarming style be. As a rule, American judges generally reward 'come forward' fighters and I suspect that both Dave Moretti and Paul Smith lean that way. Moretti had Mayweather v Judah much closer than his fellow judges, while Smith gave the plodding Baldomir 2 rounds against Mayweather when the others gave none. I suspect that one way or another they will decide the outcome of this fight.

BIG FIGHT TIP - HATTON ON POINTS: 1* (scale 1-5*) at around [5.9]