Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 16 February 2009 / Leave a comment

How a boxer reacts when the veil of invicibility is removed is the true measure of his stature, says Alex Steedman. So how will Kelly Pavlik fare against Marco Antonio Rubio?

Dungeons and Dragonheads will tell you it's the hidden key while unbeaten fighters employ it with a swagger. But the mystical cloak of invincibility is nothing more than a veil of confidence. What lies beneath and how a boxer reacts when the veil is removed can indeed be revealing; Kelly Pavlik faces that searching question this weekend.

In truth, The Ghost couldn't have a better, credible opponent for his homecoming and rehabilitation. This is Pavlik's first fight in his native Youngstown since he became the WBC/WBO Middleweight Champion and in Marco Antonio Rubio, he has a relatively artless slugger to contend with. Make no mistake, Rubio can punch, 37 KO's in 43 wins are testament to that. But he has been operating at a level where the air is much easier to breathe.

Rubio has feasted on a diet of stepping stone fighters recently including a scrape through win over Enrique Ornelas last time. He's lost 3 of his last 6 and, though he did previously despatch Jose Luis Zertuche a round earlier than Pavlik managed, The Ghost did get to him a year before with a showreel stoppage, so he may have paved the way.

Twice in 2006, Rubio moved out of his comfort zone and both were distance defeats. He was beaten by relative novice Zaurbek Baysangurov who has just been sparked by one of the 'Contenders' for goodness sake. While defeat to Kassim Ouma, the biggest name on Rubio's record, is no disgrace but a reflection of level. Ouma has been a plucky and at times tricky Light Middle but I think Pavlik would blow him away.

So what of Pavlik's application, in this his first fight since being schooled by the old master Bernard Hopkins? Team Pavlik have conducted training camp behind closed doors, it is very much down to business and, I suspect, normal business resumed.

Rubio comes with a puncher's confidence and the promises that entails; remember the Edison Miranda fight? Right up Pavlik's street. Rubio doesn't have the guile or the natural ability to back up the style he will likely employ, so much so, I think Kelly Pavlik will enjoy seeing his work clearly without the veil.

Recommendation:

Pavlik to win at [1.11] in a developing market.
Method KO in at [1.2] in a developing market
Tip Round 7, 8 or 9.