Boxing Betting: Explosive stoppage or 12 gritty rounds? The odds are it'll be the latter

Boxing Betting / Editor / 14 April 2008 / Leave a Comment

Alex Steedman on the chances of seeing a knockout in Vegas this weekend

It is somewhat Ironic, considering this is a fight operating within boxing's second most dangerous division, that it will be regarded as something of a surprise should Calzaghe v Hopkins not go the distance.

Nobody was asking for their money back when David Haye sparked Enzo Maccarinelli in two rounds recently but I know many who would pay a few quid extra just to guarantee fireworks when the bell tolls on April 19th.

Calzaghe has openly suggested that we will see some destruction now that he is released from the bonds of boiling down to 12 stones at Super-Middleweight. Pre-fight hype or not, it is an appealing notion to consider the Welshman as a greasy, fast lefty with a big punch among the light-heavies.

He boasts a near 73% career stoppage rate, although that has reduced to 50% in 10 fights since 2002. Indeed, only the hapless Peter Manfredo Jnr has failed to go the distance among Calzaghe's last five victims but it should be noted that Lacy was down and all but out in the 12th and Kessler was in all sorts of bother with a body shot in the 11th last time. Like Hopkins, Kessler has excellent footwork, yet he was comfortably out boxed throughout the second half of their fight. Afterwards, the Dane said of Calzaghe: "His power was not really, really hard but when he hits you 20 times on the head, it confuses you!"

At [27.0] or better to win by stoppage in a specific round, it's interesting that Calzaghe is considered the more likely to finish the fight early. Hopkins is around [70.0] to win by KO in most rounds which is probably an observation of his style and recent record rather than a genuine reflection of his chance on that score. Indeed, although I believe Calzaghe will win the fight, I think he is more likely to make a serious mistake than Hopkins.

Calzaghe was sent to the canvas for the first time in his career against Byron Mitchell in 2003 and again two fights later against the average Kabary Salem. Both were heavy knockdowns, on both occasions Calzaghe got off the floor to win. He took some massive hits early against Kessler too, particularly some meaty uppercuts - his potential Achilles heel. Expect Hopkins to mix in a few of those. But Calzaghe has an excellent chin and as he showed against Kessler, he has the ability to mix it up and adapt.

Hopkins though is not easy to tag and doesn't go down. Even allowing for Calzaghe's speed and potential extra power up at Light-Heavy, it would take something special to down old man Bernard.

In truth, it seems those looking to back an early finish either way at around 2.20 have either been drinking from the fountain of eternal optimism or they are privy to some extraordinary change of fight style and strategy on the part of Hopkins. Is he set to be all gung ho on this - perhaps - his last fling?

The form guide suggests not. Hopkins has gone the distance in each of his last five and hasn't scored a KO since he took out the undersized De La Hoya with an invisible body shot back in 2002. Ironically, B-Hop despatched 20 of his first 27 rivals as a pro but he has developed a style that leans heavily on defence as well as ring smarts, not conducive to early nights or indeed Pay-Per-View.

There is however one potential, cruel joker in the pack to consider, the possibility of a stoppage due to cuts. Calzaghe was roughed up and cut over both eyes against Sakio Bika (of recent 'Contender' fame) before Kessler and Bernard Hopkins makes bruiser Bika look like a puppy. Winky Wright's eye was a mess after an 'accidental' head clash against Hopkins. At a recent press conference Hopkins revealed: "I'm a master in close at breaking people down and imposing my style on them. When its time, I do things the referee can't see too." Dodging a flying glove might be the least of Calzaghe's worries; it's the head, elbows and forearms he needs to worry about.

Let us hope though for none of that and as a betting medium I can only punt around a distance fight at around [1.4], unless you want to stake around either man on points. I think Calzaghe at around even money by decision is the bet.