Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 08 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Manny Pacquiao's meteoric rise over the last 12 months has made him one of the world's best fighters. But has he really improved that much and can he beat a big man who boxes clever?

"The big question is, to what extent is Pacquiao flattered by those recent high profile wins and how much has he improved?"

Two years ago this fight would have been inconceivable, the notion that Manny Pacquiao could beat Miguel Cotto, faintly ridiculous. Yet not only is it to become reality in the early hours of Sunday morning, Pacquiao is a strong favourite to win.

In 2007, Manny Pacquiao was a heralded Super-featherweight (130lbs) and a regarded 'Mexican Assassin.' His winning trilogy against Eric Morales complete, Pacquiao was enjoying a routine win over Marco Antonio Barrera; five months later he would scrape past Juan Manuel Marquez in a see-saw thriller. Cue fast forward.

In just over a year and a half, 'Pac Man' has won two world titles in two new weight divisions; he's demolished both Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton with a swagger and in doing so he has catapulted himself into the sporting consciousness. Nike has called for his signature; the President of the Philippines calls to say: "Well Done."

The big question is, to what extent is Pacquiao flattered by those recent high profile wins and how much has he improved?

The record shows that it was Oscar De La Hoya he faced up to last December but the truth is, that was an inferior version of the fighter we had become accustomed to. Over -trained and under-hydrated, Oscar was a strangely hittable apparition and Pacquiao looked brilliant doing just that.

Sadly Ricky Hatton has always been reachable with glove but he fought like a novice lunatic when facing Pacquiao in May. Desperate to make size and weight bear, Hatton rushed in hands down and he was brutally exposed. So we know Manny has carried his power up the divisions and we know he is developing smarts and technique along the way but we don't know if he can cope with a genuinely heavier man who boxes clever. Step forward Miguel Cotto.

Two years ago Cotto was confirming himself an Elite fighter at Welterweight (147lbs) with stripe earning victories over Zab Judah and Shane Mosley. Between he and Pacquiao, it appeared Cotto was the more likely to make the leap to superstardom. But a controversial and debilitating defeat to Antonio Margarito in the middle of last year sent Cotto slithering down a snake. Back on the ladder with an easy win over Britain's over-matched Michael Jennings, Cotto was forced into the trenches again to squeeze past tough contender Joshua Clottey in June.

But questions, always questions. Is Miguel mentally repaired? Are the wars taking their toll?

Fighters always look for answers, particularly in defeat and I think Cotto will be able to square away the Margarito loss on the back of his exposition for cheating with 'loaded', hard-padded gloves. Many have questioned Cotto's resistance given a career of give-and-take fights but I thought he did admirably well to adapt throughout against Clottey under severe scrutiny and handicapped by that bad, early cut. But he toughed it out and found a way.

There are certain to be different questions asked by Manny Pacquiao this weekend though. Lightening fast punches from various angles, a restless tempo of assault; speed, speed and then some more. And that might be the pattern and indeed the story of the fight. But what happens when Cotto hits back, if he can land regularly enough himself? There remains an alternative scenario.

Visualising this fight reminds me of Pacquiao's two disputed struggles with Juan Manuel Marquez - the closest thing to his nemesis and for me, the closest thing to Cotto: Clever, accurate, adaptable and deceptive; better movers than they appear and excellent tacticians. Cotto has been quick enough to neutralise Zab Judah and smart enough to out-wit Shane Mosley. He hits hard with a solid, left-handed jab as well as his trademark left hook to the body. If he can land, if.......

I have no doubt that the current version of Manny Pacquiao is far better than his 2007 predecessor. Freddie Roach has honed him into a refined fighting machine; sharper in attack more elusive in defence. But he hasn't been asked anything like the appropriate questions since he moved up in weight. Miguel Cotto certainly has the skills to ask those questions.

Allow me to gingerly removing the splinters from my backside. I think speed and workrate may well be enough for Pacquiao here but I can't resist the feeling that when or if Cotto lands his punches, it might just feel as though he's turned back time.

Tags: Alex Steedman, Boxing betting, boxing odds, boxing tips, Manny Pacquiao, Miguel Cotto