Amir Khan v Dmitriy Salita Betting Preview: Khan can seal professional win late on

Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 03 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Onwards and upwards for Khan?

"Khan has never actually scored a direct KO and is not that sort of fighter. He throws so many punches that it is almost impossible to apply the necessary purchase, technically. And he just doesn’t seem comfortable at short range where hooks and uppercuts can be devastating."

Alex Steedman has considered the odds for Amir Khan's latest test and can't see the Olympic silver medallist's progress being checked on this occasion. Read on for suggested bets on the fight

Last weekend Yuri Foreman caused a stir when upsetting Daniel Santos to become the first ever Jewish Boxing World Champion. Fellow Brooklynite Dmitriy Salita is similarly unfancied at [5.4] to repeat the trick against Amir Khan on Saturday night. But while Santos was a ring rusted and ageing fighter, Amir Khan is brimming with youthful exuberance. The task facing Salita is huge and I think, beyond him.

Khan's hand speed and superior skills means that as a pure boxing contest this is a one way street and Salita doesn't posses that decisive power to turn it into a cul de sac. He does throw a useful left hook to head and body - punches that Michael Gomez troubled a younger Khan with - but six of Salita's last eight fights have gone the distance and that (as we discussed in the fight preview) against stoppable opponents. He's not the sledging banana skin Breidis Prescott was. So at around [1.2], Khan is the right sort of price - I certainly wouldn't argue if he were a little tighter. But there is more betting mileage in how he wins the fight.

For one thing, Khan is not the thumping machine his recent record suggests. Yes he has heard the final bell only twice from his last 12 fights but he's a bit like Joe Calzaghe was towards the end of his career where speed and volume of punches often forced the referee to intervene. Khan is no KO artist; he blurs with speed and wears down rivals. So I'd be confident this fight will end up in the Total Rounds 7-12 bracket.

But there remains the possibility of Salita being in too deep and that alone muddies the picture regarding your Method of Victory betting. The fact that Salita is a natural 140lb fighter may help his longevity in the fight, indeed he has regularly campaigned closer to welterweight throughout his career. Although the fact that he has fought just four times in two-and-a-half years again clouds that issue. Still, outside of an over-zealous referee (remember Calzaghe v Manfredo Jnr), this has the look of a fight going the distance and at odds-against, I'd be interested in that as a bet.

The market though suggests that Khan will win by stoppage or as is more commonly the case with the Bolton man, by TKO. He has never actually scored a direct KO and is not that sort of fighter. He throws so many punches that it is almost impossible to apply the necessary purchase, technically. And he just doesn't seem comfortable at short range where hooks and uppercuts can be devastating. So as ever with Khan, it's about levels, opponents and time. Salita is moving up in class, certainly, so there may come a point in the fight where Khan is able to assert himself. I still think that will be late on if at all, so I would only consider Khan to win by stoppage through grouped rounds 10-12 at around [9.0].

But in truth, I see this going all the way and I would be amazed if Khan lost on points. I don't think he can be out-boxed, so you are counting on Salita connecting often enough to make an impression and that won't be easy. Rather, I see Khan dominating behind the jab and displaying the speed but more importantly the patience which was the hallmark of his title winning performance against Kotelnik. He still remains a crowd-pleaser at heart and the recent swagger displayed by his gym mate Manny Pacquiao must surely influence, at least in terms of natural desires. But there is a professionalism about Khan these days and I'd be a little surprised if he went KO showboating.

I do believe that Salita is better than his form suggests; he'll need to be too be competitive here but I think he will be. Not enough to seriously test Khan but certainly enough to remain upstanding at the end. There are numerous ways to play around the likely outcome whether you lay Khan to win by stoppage, back the fight to go the distance or simply back Khan to win on points. At the current prices I just favour the latter. Unfortunately it's like backing a football team to win on penalties; it can be uncomfortable hoping there is not too much drama along the way.

Recommended Bets (staking plan 0-10pts):

Khan to win on points 6 Pts
Total Rounds 7-12 8 Pts