BBC Sports Personality Of The Year / The Betfair Contrarian / 21 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Get busy laying Jenson Button in the Spoty odds says the Contrarian - he's no Mansell, in fact he's not even a Hill, and the public simply do not like him enough

" Nigel Mansell and Damon Hill were both so popular that they won their first awards without claiming the title and were victorious again after dethroning Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher, two of the greatest drivers of all time. Button doesn't enjoy anywhere near that level of adoration."

The title of Sports Personality continues to mislead. After all, Ronnie O'Sullivan and David Haye would be among the leading contenders if the prizes were handed out based on entertainment value, with Emmanuel Eboue a certainty for the overseas category. Success rather than character is supposed to determine the winner, and Jenson Button is this year's favourite at [1.73] on Betfair. A Formula One Drivers Championship didn't endear Lewis Hamilton to the British public though, and the Contrarian expects Button to inherit his runner-up spot...

The favourite rarely wins
Rebecca Adlington was the jolly last year but ended up settling for third, while Lewis Hamilton was second in the betting but also failed to pick up as many votes as eventual winner Chris Hoy. Hamilton was the market leader in 2007 but came unstuck, while second favourite Ricky Hatton suffered a literal knockout blow the night before the awards, losing to Floyd Mayweather Jr. As a result, outsider Joe Calzaghe triumphed. The lesson, therefore, is not to be too swayed by the odds.

Mansell and Hill showed what it takes for drivers to win
Formula One is the second most successful sport at the awards with six wins, but that owes more to the number of British champions than the popularity of each one. Prior to Button, nine Brits won the Drivers Championship but only four of those were rewarded by the public. Nigel Mansell and Damon Hill were both so popular that they won their first awards without claiming the title (which also demonstrates the strength of Formula One back then and the greater emphasis on driving ability over engineering and pit strategy) and were victorious again after dethroning Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher, two of the greatest drivers of all time. Button doesn't enjoy anywhere near that level of adoration.

Flavio Briatore stands in his way
Not as another contender, of course, but for his role in damaging the reputation of Formula One with the Crashgate scandal, in which he encouraged Nelson Piquet Jr to crash to help secure victory for teammate Fernando Alonso. There are already enough people sceptical of why someone deserves to be considered a great sporting success for driving around in a car, so the impression that race-fixing is prominent further diminishes his chances. Equally, Button's success is undermined by the perception that he only won the title because he dominated early on when he had a vastly superior car to his rivals and plodded across the line once everyone else started to catch up.

England won the Ashes
Andrew Strauss is a surprisingly distant [16.5] to win the award despite leading the England cricket team to Ashes glory - a feat made even more impressive by the state of disarray they were in before he took over as captain in January. England have won the series on home soil on five other occasions since the Sports Personality of the Years inception in 1954 (1956, 1977, 1981, 1985 and 2005). In three of those years a cricketer won the prize, most recently Andrew Flintoff in 2005, with one coming second in the two years where they didn't.

Theres an online campaign to crown Ryan Giggs
A Facebook group has been launched this week championing Ryan Giggs for this years Sports Personality of the Year award and there has also been support on Twitter. The Facebook campaign isnt just led by some random Manchester United fans, it has been launched by Martin Kelner, a high-profile journalist who has a big enough platform to influence others. Think Giggs wouldnt deserve it? That didn't stop him winning the PFA Player of the Year award last season and he has been even better since, earning a nomination for the Ballon d'Or.

And nobody should write off Jessica Ennis
Whereas Strauss and Giggs are admittedly both outsiders at the moment, Ennis is Button's main rival at [4.1] after winning the heptathlon at this years World Championships in Athletics. She was the first ever Brit to achieve the honour and did so with remarkable ease, finishing 238 points clear of her nearest rival. Her chances are boosted further by the fact athletes have enjoyed comfortably more success than any other sport in the awards with 17 victors to Formula One's six.

Tags: Damon Hill, Flavio Briatore, Jessica Ennis, Nigel Mansell, Ryan Giggs, The Ashes