BBC Sports Personality Of The Year / Eliot Pollak / 22 December 2011 /

Eliot Pollak senses an anti-English agenda at play in recent SPOTY runnings and is banking on the Welsh masses to deliver an upset in the top-three betting

They say history repeats itself every hundred years or so. 'They' of course are absolutely spot on. In 1913, Emily Wilding Davison hurled herself to her death underneath the King's horse at Epsom, in an attention-seeking stunt aimed at getting women the vote. Nearly 100 years later, who would be surprised if a modern-day Davison didn't suddenly appear, spread-eagled on the floor of MediaCity Salford, inviting Sue Barker's heels to do their worst.

Such has been the imbroglio surrounding the male-only names on the 2011 SPOTY shortlist, that the absence of women has dominated all prior publicity (one assumes this was exactly what the BBC had hoped for.) In truth, and ironically really given Davison's exploits, one could make a better case for a horse winning this year's prize rather than a woman. I'm sure Keri-Anne Payne is a tremendous swimmer, but isn't it time Denman's career exploits were rewarded, in this, his retirement year?

So who will win? The market suggests it is Mark Cavendish's to lose, priced in as short as [1.36]. This may be due to lower-profile sports dominating the award over the last five years, with the winners roll-call reading Zara Phillips (Eventing), Joe Calzaghe (Boxing), Chris Hoy (Cycling), Ryan Giggs (you know what he does, right?), and last year's winner Tony McCoy (horse racing).

But another even more important factor is worth considering before having a punt - the power of the anti-English vote. Not since 2006 has an English person lifted this famous old prize, and even that year's winner, Zara Phillips, is effectively German. With this in mind, bettors' focus should shift to the Ulster pair of Rory McIlroy and Darren Clarke, or perhaps to the Welsh hurdler Dai Greene. (Cavendish for the record, is from the Isle of Man - not such a large voting block sadly.)

So why have minority sports and anyone-but-England voting dominated the award of late? Consider by contrast the first six winners of this century (Redgrave, Beckham, Radcliffe, Wilkinson, Holmes and Flintoff); all English, all playing high-profile sports.
Many have argued that it is the changing of the programme format where the answer lies.

In the olden days, Des and AN Other would review the sporting year, before handing over the prize, perhaps stopping for a cheeky five minute table-tennis match between Henman and Rusedski along the way. Nowadays, there is more sports footage at the Brits than in the SPOTY show. The Beeb don't have the rights to anything worth showing, and time is instead filled with an old girl winning the unsung hero award, because she runs a bridge club for urban youths.

Hence the voting demographic has dramatically changed - whereas once you would have your general sports hounds (who tend to like football, cricket etc), the audience these days is similar to the Holby City crowd. It is too cold to go out in Wales so let's put the telly on. In Scotland, it's too cold even to get up and get the remote, so leave it on BBC1.

This year a further complicating factor on the viewing figures is the day/time. The vote clashes with the Thursday evening before Xmas (where those in London will be attending work dos - no offence Scottish friends...) and coincides with Spurs-Chelsea, a match no serious football fan would miss simply to watch Jake Humphries.

All the more reason then to back a Welshman. It may be folly to oppose Cavendish, but our tip would be to back Dai Greene at [21.0] to finish in the top three.

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