BBC Sports Personality Of The Year / Alsy / 18 September 2008 /

Alister Morgan looks at the market favourites in this year's Overseas SPOTY odds...

Usain Bolt is my favourite Olympian. The Olympic 100m remains the blue-ribbon event and Bolt destroyed the opposition and broke the world record at a canter! His braggadocios celebrations seemed well earned to me after running 9.69 - in athletics such a reduction is colossal but he wasn't finished there. He finished with gold in 100m, 200m and 4x100m relay (the first since Carl Lewis, 1984) and also became the first athlete to set world records at all three events.

Comparing athletic achievement across different sports is like comparing apples and oranges but one major factor in Bolt's favour is his contagious personality. If the prize of Overseas Sports Personality goes to the brightest character then Bolt looks set for more silverware at [1.68] to win - but I suspect his winning streak may be drawing to a close.

Padraig Harrington has had the misfortune to succeed in a calendar year that also accommodated a European Championship in football and an Olympic Games. In any other year his haul of titles would take centre stage but I can't help thinking that his achievements have been overshadowed by events elsewhere.

2007 saw victory at The Open but 2008 was even better after defending his Open title and earning his first USPGA Championship. Harrington's record is awesome but the truth is that the absence of Tiger Woods might cause some to downgrade his achievements. This assessment is unfair but regardless Harrington isn't a good bet at [7.2] to win this prize despite a stand-out 2008.

Conversely Rafael Nadal faced, and repeatedly defeated, the dominant force in men's tennis. Officially Nadal is still ranked world No2 but his record in 2008 has been nothing short of mesmerising. Cast your mind back to the French Open and his 6-1, 6-3, 6-0 victory against world No1 Roger Federer. OK - his form on clay has long since been indestructible but what about this year's epic five-set Wimbledon victory over Federer? Nadal adapted his game superbly for the lightning grass courts in SW15 to defeat a player many consider to be the best ever!

As well as adding Olympic gold to his trophy cabinet Nadal has almost stalked Federer in 2008 and proved that two things.
1. Federer is not unbeatable on any service.
2. Nadal's legacy will be every bit as remarkable as Federer's.

For a man who refuses to accept second best Nadal is a fantastic outside bet at [22.0] to win Overseas Sports Personality especially with an emotional victory at Wimbledon under his belt. Nadal is definitely underpriced but needs to defeat someone even more formidable that Roger Federer.

Is there anyone in the world who doesn't know what Michael Phelps achieved this year? Endless documentaries detailed every facet of Phelps' existence, from his introduction to swimming to the anatomical idiosyncrasies that make him the most gifted human to ever pull on a pair of Speedo trunks. The great thing about Olympic performance is that it's so quantifiable so his haul of eight Beijing golds, (and a lifetime total of 14 gold medals), make Phelps the best Olympian ever.

Paradoxically, appreciating his achievements is not as easy. His triumphs are so many, his talent so singular that his Olympic record is almost too much. We all know the Olympic dream - it goes like this: Small child is inspired by watching Olympics... small child grows up and trains and sacrifices to fulfil Olympic dream... young athlete wins Olympic gold and returns home to secure endorsement deals. One Olympic Gold is enough for one lifetime but Phelps has 14. The athletes Phelps beat (in multiple disciplines) all had Olympic dreams but all opposition (many of them champions and record holders in their own right) were eventually vanquished.

If he wins the BBC award he'll defeat another stellar list of athletes but, at [3.2] to win, Phelps seems a little undervalued. I'd back him at that price - experience tells me that betting against Phelps is a foolhardy pursuit.

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