BBC Sports Personality Of The Year / Alsy / 12 December 2008 / Leave a comment

The winner of the BBC Sports Personality Of The Year will be announced on Sunday night and as Alister Morgan explains, according to the Betfair Markets, Lewis Hamilton will need a late surge if he is to pip Rebbeca Adlington to the post.

Everybody loves a winner - or do they? As the annual vote for BBC Sports Personality of the Year approaches Andy Murray can be backed to win at [250] despite a stand-out year. He climbed to No6 in the world rankings, reached the final of the US Open and won the 2008 Madrid Masters but for some reason the voting and betting public look set to ignore the best tennis talent Britain has produced in a long time.

With Joe Calzaghe the only non-English winner in the last decade perhaps voters are biased against non-English candidates? Alternatively, perhaps Murray's well-publicized allegiance to the flag of Scotland has counted against him.
The betting odds seem to imply that Calzaghe has little chance of holding on to his crown for another year despite capping off a career that could see him acknowledged as the best British Boxer of all time. Beating Bernard Hopkins and Roy Jones Jnr in 2008 should count for a little more but I don't see much evidence that backing Calzaghe at [70] will pay dividends.

Calzaghe proves an important point that while sporting excellence is useful, the public perception of personalities cannot be underestimated.
Since 1990 three footballers have won the award: Paul Gascoigne ('90), David Beckham ('01) and Michael Owen ('98) proving that the British public are not unduly swayed by actual success against the world's best.
The history of the competition is full of gifted athletes passed over for lack of an A-list marketing machine. How else could Zara Phillips beat Darren Clark in 2007 or Fatima Whitbread beat Steve Davis in 1987?

Looking for the all-time classic travesty of sporting justice? HRH The Princess Anne won the award in 1971 pushing a certain George Best and Barry John into second and third place respectively. Cleary sporting genius alone is not sufficient but Best and John are in good company (along with Geoff Boycott and Ellen MacArthur) alongside other greats never to win.

Perhaps Lewis Hamilton will be the latest sporting great to miss out if he fails again this year? That may sound ludicrous considering that he's only 23-years-old but who knows how long any successful sporting career will last. Last year Hamilton narrowly lost out to Calzaghe, and considering that he narrowly failed to win the Championship, it was a fair result. This year you can back Hamilton at [3.55] to win the award which seems remarkably generous for the youngest ever winner of an F1 World Championship.

This is one achievement that doesn't require a team of publicists to embellish. Humble origins and a strong work ethic should endear Hamilton to the public while anyone with any knowledge of F1 appreciates the huge physical commitment required. Hamilton's records stand-alone but perhaps the public feel that they are still getting to know him after only two years in the public eye.

His barrier to winning is not connecting with the British public - instead it is the outstanding Olympic athletes standing in his way. You can back Beijing gold medallists Rebecca Adlington at [1.91] or Chris Hoy at [5.2] if you believe Olympic success is more worthy than an F1 crown. Adlington became the most successful British swimmer in 100 years after winning two gold medals while Hoy's breath-taking haul of three cycling golds makes him a legend in every sense of the word.

Applying the "English rule" should give Hamilton and Adlington an advantage over Scottish-born Hoy but calling a winner between the remaining two is no easy task. Both became world beaters through dedication and the application of awesome talent. I cannot separate them but I do know that Hamilton is criminally under priced at [3.55] so I'd back him and hope for another last-gasp victory.